What to expect in Wisconsin on Election Day

This story is part of a series of state-by-state previews of the 2024 election.

Wisconsin is no stranger to close presidential elections. The margin of victory was less than a percentage point in the state’s 2020, 2016, 2004, and 2000 elections. So it might be again this Election Day.

Both Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris are competing hard for the 10 electoral votes at stake in Wisconsin, making frequent stops in the Badger State—including several in the vote-rich Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay areas.

Wisconsin was one of three “blue wall” states (Michigan and Pennsylvania are the others) that went narrowly for Trump in 2016 after almost 30 years of voting for Democratic presidential candidates. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for Democrats with a margin in Wisconsin of about 20,000 votes out of nearly 3.3 million votes cast.

In the state’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin seeks a third term against Republican Eric Hovde . Baldwin is one of five vulnerable Senate Democrats defending a seat against a well-funded, Trump-backed challenger in a campaign cycle when a defeat for even one would likely cost the party control of the chamber.

Wisconsin Senate candidates Republican Eric Hovde and Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin are seen before a televised debate on Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Madison, Wisconsin.

Both the Baldwin and Hovde campaigns and their allies have blanketed the state with more than $160 million in advertising, according to data from the campaign ad tracking firm AdImpact.

RELATED STORY: Another GOP Senate candidate caught pushing a rags-to-riches lie

In the state Legislature, Democrats hope that new district maps  will help them chip away at the lopsided majorities Republicans have enjoyed in both chambers for more than a decade. Almost half of Wisconsin’s 33 state Senate seats and all 99 state Assembly seats are up for election this year. In the state Assembly, Democrats have their most competitive campaign cycle in years, thanks in large part to the newly redrawn districts and the retirements they helped bring about.

Wisconsin voters will also consider a statewide ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to specifically ban noncitizens from voting in state elections. Noncitizens are already barred from participating in federal elections nationwide, and no state permits them to vote in state elections. However, some municipalities in a handful of states allow noncitizens to vote in local elections. The issue has prompted efforts by Republicans in Congress and several states to ban the practice entirely.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Wisconsin:

Election Day

Nov. 5.

Poll closing time

9 p.m. ET.

Presidential electoral votes

10 awarded to statewide winner.

Key races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) vs. Cornel West (Justice for All) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People).

U.S. Senate: Baldwin (D) vs. Hovde (R) and two others.

Ballot measures: Question 1 (require citizenship to vote).

RELATED STORY: Supreme Court won’t remove RKF Jr. from ballot in 2 swing states

Other races of interest

U.S. House, state Senate, and state Assembly.

Decision Notes

In Wisconsin, the first vote results reported on election night tend to be a mix of ballots cast on Election Day and in advance. In the April presidential primaries, more than a third of counties reported most or all of their vote results in their first vote report of the night—including in-person Election Day votes as well as mail-in and early votes.

But larger counties, including the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Dane, took much longer. Their first vote update of the night included only a small share of the total votes cast. In a close race, that likely means waiting for final results in both places to know who has won the state.

Voters wait in line outside a polling center on Election Day 2020 in Kenosha, Wisconsin

In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton lost to Trump despite winning Milwaukee County with 66% of the vote; Dane County, the home of Madison, with 70%; and LaCrosse County with 51%. Four years later, Biden won Milwaukee with 69% of the vote, Dane with 76%, and LaCrosse with 56%, eking out a narrow statewide victory.

Trump carried Brown County, the home of Green Bay, in 2016 and 2020 with about 52% of the vote, but Biden improved upon Clinton’s showing there by about 4 percentage points on his way to a win.

Along with support in the more rural parts of the state, Trump will likely need to post big numbers in the “WOW” counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington in suburban Milwaukee to counter the heavy Democratic support Harris will likely claim in Milwaukee and Dane.

The Associated Press doesn’t make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race hasn’t been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, like candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear it hasn’t declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but candidates may request and pay for one if the vote margin is less than a percentage point. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Past presidential results

2020: Biden (D) 50%, Trump (R) 49%, AP race call: Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, 2:16 p.m. ET.

Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 3,503,706 (as of Sep. 1, 2024).

Voter turnout in Nov. 2020: 84% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day voting

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 61% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 29% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker .

How long does vote-counting take?

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 9:07 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 70% of total votes cast were reported.

Campaign Action

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Former Trump Senior Aide Blasts ‘Convicted Felon’ Over His Liz Cheney Gun Remarks: ‘Should Be Taken Into Custody’

Anthony Scaramucci

(Photo by Bastiaan Slabbers/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)

Anthoney Scaramucci, the former White House Communications Director under former President Donald Trump, insisted that the former president be taken into custody following remarks about Liz Cheney.

At issue are comments made during an event hosted by Tucker Carlson, in which Trump blasted Cheney as “stupid” and a “Warhawk” but then insulted her, suggesting that she’d behave differently if there were guns “shooting at her.” Referring to Cheney as “a very dumb individual,” he then said:

She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrel shooting at her. Okay. Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.

Suggesting a scenario in which a political enemy is fired upon is a dangerous level of heated rhetoric. It has caused an early firestorm just days before the presidential election. Cheney did not take the comments lightly , posting her retort on social media. “This is how dictators destroy free nations,” she said. “They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant.”

Scaramucci, a former Trump media surrogate who served an 11-day term as his communications director, has since become a vocal critic of his former boss and supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign for president. He jumped into the fray Friday morning in a social media post that reminded readers that Trump is a “convicted felon.” He suggested he should be “taken into custody” as he violated his bail conditions by “threatening someone’s life. He needs to be sent away.

While Trump’s comments are reasonably seen as dangerous and arguably deeply irresponsible, the takeaway that he “threatened someone’s life” does not line up with the context or specific words that he said to Tucker Carlson. He was making the point that as a member of Congress, Liz Cheney may have been less eager to send military troops into battle if she had had guns pointed at her and not enlisted soldiers.

 

 

The post Former Trump Senior Aide Blasts ‘Convicted Felon’ Over His Liz Cheney Gun Remarks: ‘Should Be Taken Into Custody’ first appeared on Mediaite .

Daily Show’s John Leguizamo Goes in Disguise To Talk to ‘Trump Curious Latino Voters’: ‘He Misspeaks From the Heart’

John Leguizamo went undercover and disguised on The Daily Show to speak to “Trump curious Latino voters” to determine former President Donald Trump’s “surprising support in the Latino community.”

“Election day is almost upon us, and Democrats are concerned about Donald Trump’s surprising support in the Latino community,” Leguizamo said on Thursday’s Daily Show as he revealed his disguise, which included grey hair, a grey beard, and a fake nose.

Leguizamo spoke to six “undecided and Trump curious Latino voters” and introduced himself as a representative for the pro-Trump PAC Keep America American named Ron. The voters in the group cited the economy and the southern border as their biggest issues in the election.

“Can I see everybody’s ID real quick and see if you’re real citizens?” Leguizamo asked, getting an immediate no from everyone.

The comedian and actor later played clips of Trump for the six voters to see if the former president’s more controversial statements would sway them, including Trump saying illegal immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”

In another clip, Trump spoke of criminals being let into the country and declared we have “a lot of bad genes” in the US.

“I think maybe there’s better words that can be used,” one voter said. “We all misspeak sometimes.”

“I mean, what I love about Trump is when he misspeaks from the heart,” Leguizamo said.

“He misspeaks from the heart because he’s got a lot and maybe he has a good heart,” another voter agreed.

“Well said,” Leguizamo responded.

Leguizamo later revealed his identity to the voters, but found not one person changed their mind.

“Now that I’ve shown you all of these awful things about Trump, does that change your vote?” he asked.

Every voter shook their head no.

“Democracy,” Leguizamo said to the camera.

Watch above via Comedy Central .

The post Daily Show’s John Leguizamo Goes in Disguise To Talk to ‘Trump Curious Latino Voters’: ‘He Misspeaks From the Heart’ first appeared on Mediaite .

Trump spurs backlash with Cheney guns ‘trained on her face’ remarks

Former President Trump is spurring backlash with his comments about former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in which he described her having guns “trained on her face” while criticizing her foreign policy.

Ian Sams, senior adviser for the Vice President Harris’s campaign, slammed Trump  for “dangerous, violent rhetoric.”

“You have Donald Trump, who’s talking about sending a prominent Republican to the firing squad. And you have Vice President Harris talking about sending one to her Cabinet,” Sams said Friday morning on MSNBC.

On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, host Joe Scarborough said Trump  was “calling for Cheney being shot in the face by nine guns — nine rifles — the closing weekend of the campaign.” 

“Not only what it says about the Republican Party in 2024, but also what it must look like in London, in Paris, in Madrid, in Warsaw, across the world,” Scarborough said.

Trump made the comments about Cheney during a fireside chat with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson in Arizona on Thursday evening, while criticizing Cheney’s father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, for endorsing Harris .

“I don’t blame him for sticking with his daughter, but his daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb,” Trump said Thursday.

“She’s a radical war hawk,” Trump said. “Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine-barrel shooting at her, OK. Let’s see how she feels about it, you know, when the guns are trained on her face. You know, they’re all war hawks when they’re sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee, we’ll, let’s send — let’s send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy.”

Cheney has emerged as one of Trump’s most vocal Republican opponents since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, and has jumped into the race this cycle on behalf of Harris and a handful of downballot Democrats.

She responded to Trump’s remarks , posting on the social platform X that it was akin to a death threat.

“This is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death,” Cheney said.

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), who is running for Congress against Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), took a swipe at his opponent for supporting Trump in light of the comments.

“As Donald Trump calls for the murder of Liz Cheney, it is despicable and disqualifying that Mike Lawler continues to support him,” Jones posted on X .

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