The Changing Spotlight

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, NYT (“Trump and His Allies Adapt to a New Role: Fighting for Attention“):

For the first time since Donald J. Trump was indicted in the spring of 2023, he has lost his grip on the news cycle and — temporarily at least — his message. Instead of commanding morning-to-night media attention, the former president and his allies suddenly find themselves reacting to their opponents.

It’s an unfamiliar experience for Mr. Trump, who has monopolized America’s televisions, newspapers and smartphones for more than 12 months through indictments, primary victories, 34 felony convictions, an assassination attempt and a Republican National Convention at which he was celebrated as a quasi-religious figure.

In the three days since President Biden announced he was quitting the 2024 race, Mr. Trump has entered foreign territory. He has been largely crowded out from “earned media,” or organic news coverage that spreads rapidly among voters and costs campaigns nothing to produce. And his message has been, for the moment, scrambled as Democrats have replaced an old, frail white man with a younger Black woman who is campaigning energetically and giving new life to the Democratic base.

Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Mr. Biden endorsed on Sunday and around whom Democrats rapidly coalesced, has enjoyed a political hot streak that Mr. Biden’s advisers could have only dreamed of during the 2024 campaign.

She has brought in more than $120 million in new donations. She has already drawn bigger crowds than he ever did this election season. She has electrified TikTok  and put a jolt into Democrats’ volunteer efforts, especially among Black voters and women. And, unlike Mr. Biden, she is receiving blanket news media coverage that is, so far, overwhelmingly positive.

Certainly, Biden’s dropping out, the coronation/consensus of Harris as his replacement, and speculation as to who would be her VP pick have dominated the news cycle over the last (checks notes) four days (yes, it seems much longer). Trump’s weird RNC acceptance speech, which was just a week ago, has been all but forgotten and, indeed, there has been no “bounce” at all from the convention. And Trump’s surprising defiance after being hit by a would-be assassin’s bullet, which seemed like it would permanently shift the momentum in his direction, is all but forgotten. (That, by the way, was less than two weeks ago.)

Steve Peoples, AP (“The fight to define Harris is on. And for now, Republicans are dominating Democrats on the airwaves“):

Just days into her new role as the Democratic Party’s likely presidential nominee , Kamala Harris is already facing a wave of Republican-backed attack ads questioning her personality, her progressive record and what she knew about President Joe Biden’s decline.

But for now, at least, Democrats have yet to engage in the summertime advertising fight. And in a sharp reversal from much of the year, Republicans are suddenly dominating the airways.

Overall, Trump and his allies are outspending Harris’ team 25-to-1 on television and radio advertising — more than $68 million for Republicans compared to just $2.6 million for Democrats — in the period that began on Monday, the day after Biden stepped aside , through the end of August, according to an AP analysis of data compiled by the media tracking firm AdImpact.

The stunning disparity reflects actual spending for this week and reservations for subsequent weeks, which will almost certainly change in the coming days. But for now, the numbers highlight a dangerous imbalance for Democrats at the very moment that millions of voters are re-shaping their opinions of the vice president, who has spent much of the last four years in Biden’s shadow.

Some Harris allies are already sounding the alarm.

“Public opinion is like cement. It’s soft at first and then it hardens,” said Sarah Longwell, co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump. “The next three weeks are definitive. She needs to define herself before Trump defines her.”

To be sure, Harris only earned Biden’s endorsement on Sunday. And in the days since, friends and foes agree that she’s benefited from a flood of so-called “earned” news media coverage, much of it positive. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio described it as “Harris’ honeymoon” in a memo on Tuesday that predicted a surge in the polls for the Democratic vice president.

Asked about the advertising disparity, Harris spokesperson Kevin Munoz said the vice president “will make her case aggressively alongside a campaign infrastructure designed to win close elections.”

I don’t know that I’ve intentionally watched any live television since the Super Bowl, so am in no position at all to evaluate advertising saturation. I’ve seen none of the ads.

It’s certainly possible that Harris and the Democrats are dominating “earned” media while Trump and the Republicans are “dominating the airwaves” in terms of ad spots. Given that the former is free and more blanketed, I would say the advantage goes to the Democrats here.

“Fair” or not, the 11th hour candidate switch has completely upended the race. It’s gone from one that Democratic Party leaders almost universally believed they could not win—and would likely lead to a Republican takeover of the Congress, as well—to one that’s very much up for grabs.