Friday’s Forum
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America Has Two Presidents
As regulars are well aware, I did not vote for Donald Trump to be President. Indeed, I’m 0 for three on that score, having voted for his Democratic opponent in 2016, 2020, and 2024 despite having voted Republican in all eight previous presidential elections for which I was eligible. Nonetheless, I have expressed my frustration multiple times since the election that President Biden, whose administration was soundly defeated* in the election, has used the lame duck period to “Trump proof” the government, rushing to carry out policies that the voters just rejected** and endeavoring to make it harder for the victor to carry out the policies he was elected to enact.
This, however, goes both ways. We only have one President at a time and Trump is currently interfering with the affairs of state in ways I find quite problematic. While I find it unseemly, I don’t much mind that foreign heads of state are flocking to Mar a Lago to kiss the ring; the leader of the free world needs to be able to hit the ground running and establishing relationships and setting expectations during the transition enables all concerned to plan for the future. But, to take the latest example, intervening at the 11th hour to scuttle a budget deal that would have kept the government running during the holidays is not something a President-Elect should be doing.
Ultimately, while I believe both Biden and Trump are violating longstanding norms, the problem is the absurdly long transition period between administrations. Trump was elected on November 5—over six weeks ago. He won’t be sworn into office until a month from tomorrow—a day short of 11 weeks after the election. (And, yes, I’m fully aware that the inauguration was in March until the passage of the 20th Amendment in 1933.)
By comparison, our cousins across the Pond manage to get a new PM clapped into 10 Downing in as little as two days after an election. France, which also has a presidential system (although a very different one) executes the transition in less than a week.
Certainly, it would take some planning to make our transitions faster. It would, for example, require candidates to announce their intended nominees for major cabinet posts ahead of time so that they could be vetted and confirmed quickly. But the current system is not only wildly undemocratic but creates truly perverse incentives.
*I’m aware that, as laggard states slowly counted their votes, the margins shrank considerably from what they appeared to be on Election Night. Trump appears to have won slightly less than a majority of the vote. Nonetheless, he swept all seven of the “swing states” that both candidates spent most of their resources on and made gains over his 2020 totals in virtually every county in the country.
**Parsing voter intentions when there is a binary choice is, to be sure, complicated. I voted for the Democratic nominee in the last three elections despite having significant policy disagreements with each of them; presumably, a lot of folks who voted for Trump disagreed with him on some issues. Regardless, he made his stance on immigration, Ukraine, and several other issues rather clear for a very long time.
Congress To Release Gaetz Report
Matt Gaetz, President-elect Trump’s first choice for Attorney General, just got some surprising news: the House Ethics Committee has voted to release their investigation into the former Congress person’s alleged behavior. More details from CNN:
The House Ethics Committee secretly voted earlier this month to release its report into the conduct of former Rep. Matt Gaetz before the end of this Congress, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter.
The report is now expected to be made public after the House’s final day of votes this year as lawmakers leave Washington for the holidays, those sources said.
The vote, which has not previously been reported, amounts to a stark reversal for the panel after it had voted along party lines in late November not to release the results of the investigation. The decision to release the report suggests that some Republicans ultimately decided to side with Democrats on the matter, and it is unclear if the committee will once again change course now that it has voted.
[…]It is exceedingly rare for an ethics report to be released after a member has left Congress, though it has happened on a couple of occasions in the past. The committee revisited the issue behind closed doors earlier this month after a feud over the report spilled into public view before Thanksgiving.
The Ethics Committee’s report concludes a years-long probe into numerous allegations against Gaetz, including whether he engaged in sexual misconduct, used illicit drugs, “shared inappropriate images or videos on the House floor, misused state identification records, converted campaign funds to personal use, and/or accepted a bribe, improper gratuity, or impermissible gifts,” according to an announcement by the panel last summer.
This report was the tool that Republican senators used to torpedo Gaetz’s nomination for Attorney General. What’s telling is that Republicans remain in control of the House Ethics committee and had previously taken steps to block the release while he was being considered for the AG role.
The fact that at least some of those same Republicans decided to reverse course (albeit in an secret vote) speaks to how little love is lost between Gaetz and his former colleagues within the Republican party. Whether or not this is revenge for Gaetz’s role in ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy or just general dislike of the grandstanding former Congressman will be a source of great speculation.
I suspect the answer is “Why not both?!”
However, one note of caution for those of us getting ready to pop our popcorn in anticipation of reading the resport, it’s still possible Speaker Mike Johnson will find some way to either significantly redact the report or block it’s release all together.
And there are good reasons for trying to block this release from a partisan perspective. If the bipartisan committee report is anywhere near as damning as the leaks suggest, will reflect poorly on Gaetz and President Trump’s decision to choose someone with that many ethical issues* to head the Department of Justice.
* – Yes, I am opting to not make the obvious joke that all that experience criming and hiding the evidence would have given Gaetz a real insider’s view on the workings of the criminal legal system. I would never sink that low.
Feel-Good News Out of Ukraine
WSJ (“Ukraine Says It Killed Senior Russian General in Moscow Scooter Bombing“):
Ukraine carried out one of its most audacious operations on Russian soil early Tuesday, killing the commander of the unit designed to protect Russia’s troops from chemical, radiological and biological attack, by blowing up a scooter on the snowy streets of Moscow.
Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov is the most senior commander to be killed in the heart of the Russian capital since the start of the war in Ukraine. The head of the Russian Armed Forces’ Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Troops, Kirillov was killed outside a residential building along with his assistant, Russian law-enforcement authorities said.
Ukrainian officials said the killing was a special operation by the Security Service of Ukraine, the country’s primary domestic intelligence agency, known as the SBU.
Kyiv has sought to use targeted attacks against Russian military commanders, prominent pro-war figures and military installations far from the front to gain an edge in the nearly three-year-old war with its giant neighbor that has left tens of thousands dead and destroyed several Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian forces have been accused of using drones to attack the Kremlin as well as planting explosive devices and using close-range gunfire to target high-profile figures in Russia.
Russian authorities classified Kirillov’s killing as an act of terror.
After the explosion, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said Kyiv was trying to “prolong the war and death” and promised “inevitable retribution,” according to state newswire TASS. “Law-enforcement agencies must find the killers in Russia and everything must be done to destroy those who ordered it who are in Kyiv,” Medvedev said, blaming Ukraine’s military and political leadership for the attack.
The U.S. had no previous knowledge of the operation, according to a Pentagon official.
“The United States was not aware of the operation in advance and we do not support or enable these kinds of activities,” said Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Maj. Gen Pat Ryder.
On Monday, a day before his killing, the SBU named Kirillov as a suspect in an investigation of war crimes, for allegedly ordering the use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine.
“By order of Kirillov, more than 4,800 cases of enemy use of chemical weapons have been recorded since the beginning of the full-scale war,” the service said.
I suspect that there was at least informal coordination with US leadership before making such an audacious move. Certainly, the Biden administration has radically loosened the reins in its lame duck phase.
Whether Kirillov ordered the illegal use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, I simply don’t know. Regardless, he’s clearly a legitimate military target in a war started by Russia; the idea that this is “terrorism” is risible.
The Telegraph (“North Korean soldiers accidentally kill Russian troops because of language barrier“):
North Korean soldiers have accidentally killed eight Russian troops after a misunderstanding caused by the language barrier, according to Ukrainian intelligence .
According to HUR, Kyiv’s military intelligence, the deadly incident occurred when “fearful” North Koreans opened fire on vehicles from Russia’s “Akhmat” Chechen legion in Kursk, which Moscow is trying to recapture from Ukraine.
It said that Russia has faced problems commanding North Korean troops because of the communication issue.
HUR did not specify when the incident took place but announced separately on Monday that Ukrainian forces had killed or wounded some 30 North Korean soldiers over the weekend during fighting in the Kursk region.
The losses happened around the villages of Plekhovo, Vorobzha and Martynivka, HUR said, adding that three North Koreans were missing near Kurilovka.
It marks the first time that casualties from Pyongyang have been reported since the US confirmed in late October that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers had entered the war.
AP (“A couple hundred North Korean troops killed, wounded in battles with Ukrainian forces“):
A couple hundred North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces against Ukraine have been killed or wounded during battle in the Kursk border region, a senior military official said Tuesday.
The official didn’t provide details on exactly how many have been killed, but said the North Korean forces don’t appear to be battle-hardened, which contributes to the number of casualties they’ve had. The official was providing the first significant estimate of North Korean casualties, which comes several weeks after Ukraine announced that North Korea had sent 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia to help it in the almost 3-year war.
The White House and Pentagon on Monday confirmed that the North Korean forces have been battling on the front lines in largely infantry positions. They have been fighting with Russian units and, in some cases, independently around Kursk.
Alas, the next paragraph anticipates my concern:
The casualty disclosure comes as the Biden administration is pressing to send as much military aid as possible to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes over. But a senior defense official told reporters Tuesday that the Defense Department may not be able to send all of the remaining $5.6 billion in Pentagon weapons and equipment stocks intended for Ukraine before Jan. 20, when Trump is sworn in.
For most of the war, I have struggled to envision an endstate. At its outset, pretty much everyone, myself included, expected Russia to roll to easy victory. Ukraine’s fierce resistance quickly punctured that notion, made possible through the combination of years of training by the US and other NATO countries, huge material and intelligence support, and admirable grit in the face of horror on the part of the Ukrainian people. Yet, both sides had established maximalist gains that the losses of the war have only served to reinforce.
Trump has given every indication that U.S. support will dry up under his watch. We’ll see if our European allies can fill the breach. For now, at least, the Ukranians can revel in good news.
Monday’s Forum
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How the Contagion Spreads
I have noted on more than one occasion that instead of RFK, Jr.’s conspiratorial views on vaccines leading to his rejection, he is infecting the GOP with his nonsense. Since Kennedy appears now as a Trump-appointed member of the team, his newly acquired co-partisans are far more receptive to his nonsense than they ever would have been when he was perceived as belonging to the other team.
And just like diseases often enter the population through those with weaker immune systems, Kennedy’s conspiracy contagion enters the body politic through the weak-minded.
To wit (or, perhaps, the lack thereof), the senior Senator from my state, Tommy “Coach” Tuberville (R-AL).
So, yes, Tuberville has never said anything to make me believe that he isn’t at the bottom of the intelligence ladder in the chamber. As such, one might be inclined to dismiss him. But the reality is, he is one of 100 Senators, and one of 50 needed to confirm Kennedy to HHS (Vance would break any tie). As such he is influential (other co-partisans will listen to him, and some of them will catch the contagion in question) and he has a literal direct power over the outcome.
The more people who listen to this nonsense and believe even part of it leads us down a road of dangerous skepticism over public health policies and specifically the mitigation of disease.
There is a lot to unpack from his statement, but here are a couple of thoughts.
First, there is the assertion that somehow the current approach to vaccinations is “guessing” and not science. But, of course, science is what is guiding all of this. ( But, yes, Senator, let’s “Do facts”).
Second, there is the suggestion that children just get too many vaccinations. I think that this is, in part, counting different doses to amplify the number. But from a propaganda POV, throwing out a number could make many people say, wow, that sounds like a lot! I wonder if it is too many? But, again, the issue is not the number, it is the efficacy and knowable side effects. You know, because of the science of it all.
I also note the number of shot issues, because clearly is it a talking point that sticks in the minds of people like Tuberville, because I have heard it repeated more than once in similar conversations.
Third, the assertion that everyone knows someone who was perfectly healthy and died from the COVID vaccine is a dangerous falsehood. And, of course, that statement alone should underscore that Senator Coach should not be trusted.
We always have misinformation (if not straight-up conspiracy theories) in our politics and society, but we are currently mainlining them into our system via the leadership of the Republican Party. The damage is going to be immense and long-lasting. At a bare minimum, it is damaging to critical thinking and basic knowledge. But if it does lead to changes in public trust in vaccinations, let alone actual changes to public health policy, it will lead to more sick and/or dead people than was necessary.
This all, I would note, a trip down Unreality and Propaganda Lane in a way the sews the seeds of distrust in experts and is something that Uncle Vlad would be most proud to see.