In June 2016, pro-choice activists flooded the streets outside of the Supreme Court to celebrate its near-miss ruling
in Whole Woman’s Health vs. Hellerstedt, upholding abortion rights in Texas. But then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton issued a stark warning
:
“[T]he fact that our next president could appoint as many as three or four justices in the next four years [should serve as] striking reminders that we can’t take rulings like today’s for granted.”
Anecdotally, former Clinton campaign staffers have told Daily Kos
that focus groups of voters simply didn’t believe abortion rights could be at risk.
Eight years and three Trump-appointed justices later, Republicans have quashed abortion access across the South
, and they are angling for a nationwide ban, which Donald Trump will not commit to vetoing
if he wins the presidency.
But voters’ initial reluctance to believe in the fragility of a constitutional right to abortion, which had existed for nearly half a century, is a golden opportunity for Democrats to shed light on what Republicans could do if given the power to enact their dystopian vision for the U.S.
In a recent “60 Minutes” interview with Norah O’Donnell, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries addressed “how big of an issue” abortion rights will be in November.
Jeffries began by framing abortion as a fight for “freedom,” using the “erosion of reproductive freedoms” to warn voters about the myriad other staples of U.S. democracy that Republicans could come for next.
“If Roe v. Wade can fall, anything can fall. Social Security can fall. Medicare can fall. Voting rights can fall. And God help us all, but democracy itself can fall,” Jeffries said.
Leader Jeffries: This is about freedom. If Roe v. Wade can fall, anything can fall. Social Security can fall. Medicare can fall. Voting rights can fall. And God help us all, but democracy itself can fall pic.twitter.com/vYIXcCsJBD
That’s a pitch perfect slippery slope argument for an electorate that is already on high alert about the existential threat that Republicans pose to U.S. democracy, freedom, and way of life.
A recent Marist poll for NPR and PBS NewsHour showed that “the rise of fascism and extremism” ranked as Americans’ biggest concern
about the country’s future, with 31% of adults choosing it over five other metrics. Among Democrats, 47% said it was their primary concern, as did 32% of independents.
Last month’s Siena poll
for The New York Times found that 41% of voters view Trump as a “unique threat to democracy,” including 77% of Democrats, 38% of independents, and 6% of Republicans.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden isn’t viewed as nearly the threat that Trump is, with just 28% of voters saying Biden is a unique threat, including 60% of Republicans, 28% of independents, and 2% of Democrats.
Framing Republican abortion bans as a broader assault on freedom is a no-brainer for Democrats. But using abortion to remind voters that the unthinkable not only can happen, but that it has happened, is crucial to helping voters imagine the unimaginable.
And Trump’s narrow win in 2016 was a direct result of that failure of imagination.
● GA Supreme Court: Former Democratic Rep. John Barrow, who is seeking a seat on the Georgia Supreme Court, has filed a lawsuit
asking a federal court to block a state board from sanctioning him for statements he’s made in support of abortion rights during his campaign.
Barrow has made abortion the centerpiece of his bid to unseat
conservative Justice Andrew Pinson, who is up for reelection for a six-year term on May 21.
“Now I’m running for the Georgia Supreme Court to protect our personal freedoms,” says Barrow in a recent TV ad
, “including the freedom of women to make their own medical decisions like abortion, fertility, and birth control politicians.”
But Georgia’s Judicial Qualifications Commission has taken exception to these types of comments, saying that they violate the state’s Code of Judicial Conduct. Among other things, the commission charged in a letter
obtained by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that Barrow had “made pledges/promises/commitments related to highly sensitive cases/controversies/issues which are likely to come before the Georgia Supreme Court,” in violation of the code.
The board demanded Barrow cease making such statements and remove offending materials from his campaign website and advertising. Barrow says in his suit
that, should he fail to comply, he could face a variety of sanctions, up to and including disbarment.
But these restrictions and threats, Barrow argues, violate his First Amendment rights. He therefore wants the court to declare that the rules in question are unenforceable. Barrow’s approach on the campaign trail closely resembles that of Janet Protasiewicz, who stressed her belief that “women should have the freedom to make their own decisions on abortion” in ads
for her successful campaign for the Wisconsin Supreme Court last year.
Election Recaps
●IN-Gov (R): Sen. Mike Braun, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, had no trouble defeating
Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch 40-22 in a crowded and expensive GOP primary to replace termed-out Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb.
Braun will be favored in the fall against former Superintendent of Public Institution Jennifer McCormick, a one-time Republican
who won the Democratic nod without opposition, in a conservative state that last elected a Democratic governor in 2000
.
Braun, according to a 2021 report
from the University of Minnesota, would be the first sitting senator to be elected governor of any state since Kansas Republican San Brownback in 2010.
●IN-03 (R): Former Rep. Marlin Stutzman is poised to return to the House following his tight 24-23 victory
over businessman Tim Smith in the packed primary to replace Rep. Jim Banks, who won the GOP nomination for the Senate without opposition. The result is unwelcome news for GOP leaders who have unhappy memories of Stutzman’s last stint representing this dark red seat in the Fort Wayne area.
Indeed, America Leads Action, a super PAC dedicated to defeating hardliners who could make trouble for the current crop of House leaders, spent $1.8 million
to try to head off his comeback. Stutzman, though, benefited from aid from a group allied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, while his old allies at the Club for Growth also aired ads attacking his main opponents.
Stutzman, who was close to the tea party movement, attracted the wrong kind of national attention during the 2013 government shutdown when he said
, “We’re not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.” Stutzman went on to take part in a failed effort
to end John Boehner’s speakership in 2015 (Boehner, though, ended up resigning later that year).
The GOP establishment therefore had little reason to be sad when Stutzman badly lost a 2016 Senate primary to House colleague Todd Young. That defeat appeared to be it for the former congressman, who seemed destined for a life of owning a local tourist attraction
that offers “relaxing tours of Amish life” (albeit one located in the neighboring 2nd District). However, Banks’ own Senate dreams gave Stutzman the opening he needed to return to the House, an opening he readily seized.
●IN-05 (R): Rep. Victoria Spartz fended off wealthy state Rep. Chuck Goodrich to win renomination
39-33 in a nine-way primary, a result that’s likely to frustrate Republicans tired of dealing with the unpredictable congresswoman
.
The incumbent, who announced she would retire in January last year, relaunched her reelection bid
just three months before the primary, but a packed field of would-be successors helped split the anti-Spartz vote just enough for her to win with a plurality. After the most recent census, Republican mapmakers passed a new gerrymander to ensure that this constituency, which includes Indianapolis’ northern suburbs and part of central Indiana, would remain safely red.
●IN-06 (R): Wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve defeated
state Rep. Mike Speedy 28-22 in the primary, with businessman Jamison Carrier in third at 20%. While both Speedy and Carrier self-funded their respective bids, neither could come close to matching the $5.6 million
that Shreve poured into his own effort.
Shreve is now on a glide path to replace retiring Rep. Greg Pence in a safely Republican seat that includes the southern and eastern Indianapolis area and part of east-central Indiana. Shreve’s reversal in (political) fortune comes less than a year after he lost his bid to lead Indianapolis 59-41
against Democratic Mayor Joe Hogsett after throwing down $13.5 million
of his own money.
Pence, who is the older brother of Mike Pence, also almost certainly saw whatever chance he had of continuing his political career go down in flames on Tuesday. There was talk that the congressman could serve as the running mate for Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch should she win the primary for governor, an idea Pence never appeared to rule out
.
However, while it’s up to GOP delegates to pick the nominee for lieutenant governor on June 15
, Crouch’s decisive loss to Sen. Mike Braun leaves her with little ability to influence their choice.
●IN-08 (R): State Sen. Mark Messmer beat former Rep. John Hostettler, an iconoclast and antisemite
who made numerous enemies in his party, 39-20 to win the Republican nomination
to replace retiring Rep. Larry Bucshon.
This once-competitive southwestern Indiana constituency is now dark red turf, and Messmer will have no trouble in the fall. Hostettler’s landslide loss
in the 2006 general election made him the last incumbent to lose reelection in what was then nicknamed the “Bloody 8th”
due to its propensity to change hands.
Senate
● NE-Sen-A, NE-Sen-B: Independent candidate Dan Osborn has publicized an internal poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that shows him trailing Republican Sen. Deb Fischer just 37-33
even as respondents favor Donald Trump 57-34. This is the first survey we’ve seen all year
of the general election for a full six-year Senate term in Nebraska.
Osborn, who is a steamfitter and labor leader
, has attracted national attention in a difficult contest where no Democrat is running. The candidate, who supports abortion rights but opposes a ban on assault weapons, told Politico last month, “I would like to create an independent caucus” in the Senate. The Nebraska Examiner wrote in March that the state Democratic Party is considering backing Osborn
, though it has not yet made an endorsement
.
Osborn, however, won’t be Fischer’s only foe in this dark red state. Two candidates from the Legal Marijuana NOW Party
are competing in next week’s primary (yes, there’s a Legal Marijuana NOW primary for Senate
, though no candidates are listed for any other offices), and the eventual nominee could cost Osborn support from left-wing voters.
Nebraska’s other U.S. Senate seat is also up in November, but Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who was appointed to fill a vacancy last year, appears to have little to worry about in his bid for the remaining two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term.
Ricketts’ only intra-party foe next week is an underfunded Air Force veteran
named John Glen Weaver, who ran a little-noticed 2022 campaign in the 1st Congressional District. A GOP consultant recently told the Examiner that Weaver’s bid to beat Ricketts
was like “David vs. Goliath if David were fighting with a Fruity Pebble.” Democrats are fielding a candidate for this contest, but civil rights activist Preston Love hasn’t garnered anywhere near as much attention as Osborn has in the other Senate race.
● WI-Sen: Wisconsin TV stations have pulled an ad
by a Republican super PAC that falsely accused Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of voting to “cut Medicare” after the attorneys for the DSCC pointed out
that no such vote had ever taken place.
“Why else would Baldwin vote to cut Medicare and use that money for electric vehicle subsidies?” began the ad from Restoration PAC, which is largely funded
by conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. The spot doesn’t cite a particular piece of legislation, but Democrats said the PAC was referring to Baldwin’s vote in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act.
That bill, however, did not cut Medicare
in any way. Rather, it allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices for the first time, which would save the program almost $300 billion. Medicare benefits would be unaffected. (The act also includes subsidies
for buyers and manufacturers of electric vehicles.)
Restoration PAC was vulnerable to Democrats’ takedown demand because television stations can be held liable
for publishing defamatory statements by third-party groups—one of the few ways in which there can be accountability for lying in the political arena.
Candidates, by contrast, have much more leeway. Under federal law, broadcasters cannot refuse to air ads from candidates’ campaigns as long as they’re paid for. Consequently, stations can’t be sued for defamatory ads from candidates because they have no choice but to run them. But since they face no such obligation when it comes to outside groups, stations must be more cautious, since they could find themselves hauled into court over false third-party advertisements.
Ultimately, Restoration PAC replaced the offending ad with a different version
arguing the senator voted “to use Medicare money for electric vehicle subsidies, instead of seniors.” The PAC also suggested it had made the swap “before the Democratic groups complained,” according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
A Baldwin spokesperson, however, responded that the new ad was “just as false”
as the initial one, according to the paper.
House
● LA Redistricting: A three-judge federal court panel has given Louisiana’s Republican-controlled legislature until June 3 to adopt a new congressional map
after the court’s Trump-appointed majority ruled that
lawmakers impermissibly relied on race when they enacted a new map in January that created a second Black-majority district.
However, Republican state Senate President Cameron Henry said it would be “impossible” to pass a new map
during the regular legislative session and deemed a special session unlikely, per the Louisiana Illuminator’s Piper Hutchinson.
If lawmakers fail to meet the June 3 deadline, the court said it would implement its own map the following day. Litigants and outside parties will have until May 17 to propose their own maps for the judges to consider at a May 30 hearing.
● MD-06: Del. Joe Vogel’s allies at Equality PAC have publicized a late April survey from Public Policy Polling that shows him deadlocked 24-24
with former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney in next week’s Democratic primary for Maryland’s 6th District.
This is the first poll we’ve here since mid-March, when a Vogel internal from GBAO found him trailing Delaney 17-10
in the primary to replace Democratic Senate candidate David Trone. The eventual nominee will be favored in a constituency that backed Joe Biden 54-44 in 2020
.
● NH-02: The New Hampshire Union Leader’s Kevin Landrigan tweeted Tuesday
that Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander would “decide in the next few days” whether she’ll join the Sept. 10 primary to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, a fellow Democrat.
● NJ-10: Former East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, who served as North Jersey political director for Rep. Andy Kim’s Senate campaign, announced Tuesday
that she was joining the July 16 special Democratic primary to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Don Payne.
The New Jersey Globe writes that Claybrooks won the Democratic nomination in 2019 for a seat on the East Orange Council after party leaders in Essex County awarded her the so-called organization line, but she did not appear on the primary ballot
four years later following her fallout with those former allies.
“Not being offered the line, I think it was a blessing in disguise,” Claybrooks said as she launched her congressional campaign. “I got the opportunity to go off and explore what it looked like for me to move in this government space in a way that was true to me and that did not call for me to be something less than the courageous person that I was.”
Kim’s Senate campaign was part of a successful lawsuit
that barred Democrats from utilizing the county line system in this year’s primaries.
● VA-05: American Patriots PAC has launched its first ad
against Rep. Bob Good as part of what Bloomberg recently reported will be a massive $3 million buy
ahead of the June 18 Republican primary. The spot accuses the incumbent of voting against funding for American soldiers and veterans’ care facilities, but it does not mention Good’s intra-party foe, state Sen. John McGuire
Ballot Measures
● NY Ballot: An amendment that supporters say would enshrine the right to an abortion into New York’s constitution has been knocked off the November ballot
by a state court judge, who ruled
on Tuesday that lawmakers voted to refer the amendment to voters without first receiving a legally required opinion on the measure from state Attorney General Tish James.
James, a Democrat, immediately said
her office would appeal. The measure, known as the New York Equal Rights Amendment, would protect a wide array of civil liberties. However, as state constitution law expert Quinn Yeargain has noted
, its language regarding abortion is much more indirect compared with the very specific phrasing used in amendments designed to safeguard abortion rights in other states.
● SD Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative that would implement a top-two primary in South Dakota have turned in roughly 47,000 voter signatures
for their proposed amendment. To qualify for November’s ballot, 35,017 of those signatures must be valid. Republican Secretary of State Monae Johnson’s office has an Aug. 13 deadline to verify them.
If the amendment
qualifies and wins voter approval, it would abolish traditional party primaries for governor, Congress, state legislature, and county-level posts. It would replace them with one primary for each office where all candidates from all parties would compete on a single ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party, would advance to the general election. A similar system is currently used in California and Washington.
AZ-Sen: Data Orbital
(R): Ruben Gallego (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 44 (39-38 Biden)
PA-Sen: Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio Ward (R)
for the AARP: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (49-45 Trump in two-way, 46-41 Trump with third-party candidates)
PA-AG: Impact Research (D) and Fabrizio Ward (R)
for the AARP: Dave Sunday (R): 44, Eugene DePasquale (D): 43 (49-45 Trump in two-way, 46-41 Trump with third-party candidates)
Ad Roundup
MD-Sen: David Trone (D) – anti-Angela Alsobrooks (D) (here
and here
); Larry Hogan
(R) and the NRSC
I’ve noticed that some people who seem fine with rampant development — and in some cases have profited mightily from it — suddenly become very concerned about growth when the need to build affordable housing arises in their own neighborhood.
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup is a long-running series published every morning that collects essential political discussion and analysis around the internet.
Geoff Duncan: Why I’m voting for Biden and other Republicans should, too
Donald Trump has disqualified himself through his conduct and his character
I get it. No one likes paying higher taxes, and these protests are unsettling. But the last year of the Trump presidency was hardly a time of tranquillity. His handling of the pandemic was erratic, including at one point musing about consuming disinfectants. His reliance on incendiary phrases
such as “when the looting starts, the shooting starts” fueled racial unrest. His infamous march to St. John’s Episcopal Church
across the street from the White House, flanked by top aides (including Barr) and brandishing a Bible, further set the nation ablaze.
Trump has shown us who he is. We should believe him. To think he is going to change at the age of 77 is beyond improbable.
Since Kristi Noem released snippets from her book, her chances of becoming Trump’s VP have been slashed by 5/6s per the betting markets. She seemed to not realize that dogs have an 88% favorable rating. One of the worst political moves I’ve ever seen. pic.twitter.com/BfoRDFs951
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) May 7, 2024
Some in-the-weeds questions on which the New York Trump trial depends.
But what about the standard of proof for the object offense? Recently, legal commentatorson Twitter
have been debating whether Bragg must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump committed that “other crime” as well, or just that he intended to commit it…
One way to think about this is to consider the burden of proof for the offenses listed under A and B. Must Bragg prove beyond a reasonable doubt that both sets of offenses occurred? Or must he prove that A occurred beyond a reasonable doubt, and prove Trump’s intent to commit one or all of the offenses in B—but not the fact that the offenses themselves occurred?
This distinction might seem nitpicky. But given the high burden of proof in a criminal case—proof beyond a reasonable doubt, as opposed to the lower preponderance of evidence standard in civil cases—it could be crucial. If Bragg must prove both A and B beyond a reasonable doubt, and the jury retains some uncertainty as to whether the object offenses under B actually occurred, that could sink the entire case. On the other hand, if Bragg must only prove A beyond a reasonable doubt, along with the intent to commit B, that potentially leaves prosecutors with more wiggle room to secure a conviction. Jurors might not buy with 99 percent certainty that the object crime was committed, but they could still vote to convict if they believe the intent was there.
As an initial matter, the text of Section 175.10
suggests that what’s required is proof of intent, rather than of the object crime.
Bolts wants YOUR questions: Elections law expert Josh Douglas wrote a new book on how SCOTUS keeps undermining voting rights, & how it’s all coming to a head. And he agreed to answer your questions. If you want to know anything on that… ask away!https://t.co/bR8qdYDvCW
Republican voters find comfort in their intentional ignorance
A lot of Trump supporters are not really voting for Trump. They’re voting for their own fears and prejudices.
Trump is a channel for their grievances, and when it comes to the specifics of what Trump says and does, even his supporters don’t always buy in.
So what do they do about Trump’s immorality and Nazi-style rhetoric? They ignore it or laugh it off. They don’t want the specifics of Trump’s negative behavior to taint their vague but positive feelings about him.
Money isn’t enough to smooth the path for Republican candidates hoping to retake the Senate
Frustrated by the seemingly endless cash flowing to Democrats
, Republicans aiming to retake the Senate have rallied around candidates with plenty of their own money.
The goal is to neutralize Democrats’ roughly 2-to-1 financial advantage, among the few bright spots for a party defending twice as many Senate seats as Republicans this year. But it also risks elevating untested candidates who might not be prepared for the scrutiny often associated with fiercely contested Senate campaigns.
In Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin
, GOP Senate candidates are being pressed on whether they live in the state. In Montana, the party’s Senate candidate recently admitted lying about the circumstances of a gunshot wound he sustained. And in Ohio, the Republican contender pitched himself as financially independent but now may be turning to donors for help repaying loans he made to his campaign.
You know things are bad for a Republican politician who finds herself getting grilled on Newsmax. Newsmax! https://t.co/TTlX5Uf5RX
Joe Biden’s Terrible Approval Rating May Not Matter
The president’s approval rating is abysmal. But he can still win.
Six months before the most fateful election of our lifetimes, we are entering that moment in the campaign when model makers rush onstage hawking their presidential predictions. And, no, we are not talking about hobbyists who put ships in a bottle or glue together plastic replicas of World War II fight planes. These model makers are election theorists from academia
, economic forecasting firms
, and polling websites
who offer their presidential forecasts based on their proprietary formulas—many of which are blithefully unconcerned with the identities of the actual White House contenders.
To oversimplify a bit, these mathematical approaches to political soothsaying involve combining some variant of presidential approval ratings, economic growth numbers, the inflation rate, prior election returns, and an exclusive blend of herbs and spices to reveal who is going to win long before anyone votes.
Almost nothing scares Democrats more than those ominous three words: “presidential approval rating.” But context is badly needed.
But I forgot how misogyny and sexual trauma — even after an encounter devoid of physical or verbal threats, as Stormy acknowledged today — can turn radically different women into vessels for similar testimony that reverberates from one courtroom to the next. FIN.
The New York trial is wearing down Trump — and it shows
His nodding off in court is a sign that he is weaker and more vulnerable than ever.
On the very first day of Trump’s falsifying business records trial, New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman
reported, “Even as a judge was hearing arguments on last-minute issues in a criminal case that centers on salacious allegations and threatens to upend his bid for the presidency, Mr. Trump appeared to nod off a few times, his mouth going slack and his head drooping onto his chest.” (That earned her a glare
from Trump.)
Pundits inside the courtroom
chime in to inform Americans when he nods off. You can believe Trump’s sleepiness has become noticeable when Fox News propagandists try to cover for him by praising his naps
.
Brutal @djrothkopf
critique of Netanyahu, America’s worst “ally.” The damage David tallies here is profound and ongoing, right up to nearly but not quite (yet) scuttling the latest possible ceasefire deal. https://t.co/M0m9mhrYKr
