Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, a significant population shift
has been underway, led chiefly by millennials and Gen Z Americans who are moving
from urban to rural areas. This could spell trouble for the Democratic Party, which has historically depended on voters in dense and progressive cities and states.
As the populations
in states like California, New York, and Illinois decline, these once-solidly blue states could face an existential crisis as they are no longer the reliable powerhouses they once were. Meanwhile, conservative southern states like Texas and Florida are gaining new residents. This could dramatically shift the balance of political power, making blue states less competitive and red states more influential.
According to data from the Brennan Center for Justice, if these migration patterns continue through the 2030 Census, California will lose four Congressional seats and New York will lose two. In total, states that went to Kamala Harris in 2024 could lose a dozen House seats and Electoral College votes, making the path for Democrats even more difficult.
Migration will hemorrhage Democratic voters until it reaches critical mass
The concept of critical mass theory
is that collective political action requires a “critical number of personnel needed to affect policy and make a change not as the token but as an influential body.”
It’s no secret that rural areas tend to be red, while urban areas are typically blue. The migration trend, while unsettling for Democrats, isn’t all bad news. If it continues, the party could have an opportunity to reshape these growing, historically conservative regions into states in play.
But this won’t happen overnight.
First, Democrats might experience a significant loss of voters in blue states as people migrate to red states. Only after reaching a “critical mass” of voters in these conservative areas will Democrats have the chance to make an impact.
However, parties can’t base their fundraising and strategies on wait-and-sees. Right now, Democrats are looking at North Carolina and, yes, even Texas, where there was a close Senate race in 2024—with Colin Allred losing by less than a million votes to Ted Cruz—to build a platform on the economic issues that got Donald Trump his populist base.
As time passes and migration patterns continue, baby boomers will give way to a new generation of rural voters who Democrats could sweep up. But it would be a mistake to ignore the issues that impact the majority of Americans now, like student debt, sky-high housing prices, the climate crisis, and expensive health care.
There are many reasons why people migrate. The pandemic caused a boom in remote work
that, combined with rising rental costs
in cities, made it easier for people to relocate to more affordable rural areas. Trends like “cottage core
” and “trad wife
” that have become popular among millennials and Gen Z have idealized homesteads and rural living. Some might argue that the great migration is simply a result of an overworked
, exhausted
, and disillusioned
generation of Americans who want to quit
the rat race.
Migration could also be due, in part, to the drastic changes in cities as a result of the pandemic. What was once a bustling nightlife scene has given way to shuttered small businesses
, leading to a more solitary lifestyle. Similarly, as rents increase, young people are priced out of homeownership, and wages don’t keep up, people are opting to live in places where they can get more for their money.
Democrats haven’t achieved a significant victory in the South since former President Jimmy Carter
in the early 1970s. Meanwhile, the GOP staked out the long game, successfully implementing its southern strategy
and winning all of those states in 2024.
Even before its defeat in November, the Democratic Party recalibrated, adhering to its loss of the South and instead focusing on trying to win the Midwest’s “Blue Wall”—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
But as the electorate has shifted, it’s no longer enough to win the White House without the support of some southern states.
How will the party that is redlining itself reclaim rural voters, especially ones in the South who’ve gone devout MAGA? And will these migration trends solidify Democrats’ decline in traditionally blue states, or will they become an opportunity to shift the political landscape in red states?
The answers are still unknown, but how the Democratic Party adapts to these population changes will determine where it goes from here.
Black Music Sundayis a weekly series highlighting all things Black music, with over 245 stories covering performers, genres, history, and more, each featuring its own vibrant soundtrack. I hope you’ll find some familiar tunes and perhaps an introduction to something new.
Across the nation on Monday, Americans will celebrate the federal and state holiday held in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.—and people will gather to put his principles into practice. As The King Center announced
:
Our strategic theme for 2025 is ‘Mission Possible: Protecting Freedom, Justice, and Democracy in the Spirit of Nonviolence365′. This theme defines the 2025 King Holiday Observance events and programming while serving as a compass for all the work we will do this upcoming calendar year and beyond. The pioneering work of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. demonstrated that Kingian Nonviolence (Nonviolence365™) is the sustainable solution to injustice and violence in our world, ultimately leading to the creation of the Beloved Community, where injustice ceases, and love prevails.
In that spirit, let us lift our voices in song and praise, and enjoy a musical soundtrack honoring King, the struggles we face, and the spirit of resistance he embodied.
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. gives his iconic “I Have A Dream” speech at the Lincoln Memorial in August 1963.
One of my favorite vocal groups who embody activism is Sweet Honey In The Rock.
At Carnegie Hall on in November 1987, the group performed their interpretation of “Letter To Doctor Martin Luther King,”
which was written by poet Sonia Sanchez
. Sanchez originally published it in her collection “Homegirls & Hand Grenades” in 1984.
As I point my face toward a new decade, Martin, I want you to know that the country still crowds the spirit. I want you to know that we still hear your footsteps setting out on a road cemented with black bones. I want you to know that the stuttering of guns could not stop your light from crashing against cathedrals chanting piety while hustling the world.
Great God, what a country, Martin!
[…]
Sitting on our past, we watch the new decade dawning. These are strange days, Martin, when the color of freedom becomes disco fever; when soap operas populate our Zulu braids; as the world turns to the conservative right and general hospitals are closing in Black neighborhoods and the young and the restless are drugged by early morning reefer butts. And houses tremble.
These are dangerous days, Martin, when cowboy-riding presidents corral Blacks (and others) in a common crown of thorns; when nuclear-toting generals recite an alphabet of blood; when multinational corporations assassinate ancient cultures while inaugurating new civilizations. Come out come out, wherever you are. Black country. Waiting to be born . .
[…]
Martin. I have learned too that fear is not a Black man or woman. Fear cannot disturb the length of those who struggle against material gains for self-aggrandizement. Fear cannot disturb the good of people who have moved to a meeting place where the pulse pounds out freedom and justice for the universe.
Born out of Bernice Johnson-Reagon
’s tenure in the SNCC Freedom Singers
, Sweet Honey In The Rock has no shortage of songs
to inspire us to keep fighting back—no matter what. And we need that fight back music more than ever in this perilous time of Donald Trump and his racist minions.
I’m sure you can agree with the women of the RCC when they sing that “Everybody Deserves to Be Free.” Deva Mahal
, (who happens to be the daughter of blues icon Taj Mahal
) takes the lead.
This song is near and dear to our hearts and our mission. It comes to us through the Black church from gospel music legend Shirley Caesar and we are proud to offer our version at a time when joy and healing are so needed.Self-filmed during quarantine at the height of the pandemic, this video — directed by Geneva Peschka and edited by Maximilla Lukacs with animation by Jenny Scales — illustrates how our intrinsic individual and collective joy can never be locked up, shut down or taken away, even during our darkest struggles.
Many of our greatest jazz instrumentalists and composers were inspired by King and the Civil Rights Movement.
Duke Ellington’s “King Fit The Battle of Alabam” is an example. As Paul Devlin wrote
for Slate in 2013:
Duke Ellington’s Tribute to Martin Luther King, 50 Years Later
In 1963, Duke Ellington directed and narrated My People, a song-and-dance revue he wrote about African-American history, which was presented in Chicago as part of the Century of Negro Progress Exposition. The album finally became available once again this past September, 20 years after its last re-release. (The new version also has 15 more tracks than previous releases.)
The revue’s most striking song is a stunning tribute to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., “King Fit the Battle of Alabam
.” Ellington, outraged by the actions of Bull Connor and the police in Birmingham, Ala., in April 1963, re-imagined King as the protagonist of “Joshua Fit the Battle of Jericho
,” writing a powerful, forward-looking salute not only to King but to Birmingham’s courageous black residents as well. In Ellington’s song, one of Connor’s dogs pulls “his Uncle Bull’s coat,” and says, “That baby acts like he don’t give a damn. Are you sure we’re still in Alabam?”
Here’s “King Fit The Battle Of Alabam,” sung by The Irving Bunton Singers.
Recorded at Universal Studios in Chicago. August 20, 1963.Duke composed My People for Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation Centennial Celebration ‘A Century of Negro Progress Exposition’ and the elaborate production ran from August 16 to September 2, 1963 in the Arie Crown Theater at Chicago’s McCormick Place.In 1963, Robert Morris was a young undergraduate music major at DePaul University’s School of Music and a member of the Irving Bunton Singers. Duke appointed him arranger for all of the choral music for My People.
My People was being performed in Chicago…when the historic March on Washington took place August 28, 1963 during which Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. gave the legendary “I Have a Dream” speech.
Jazz saxophonist and composer John Coltrane
was deeply moved by King and the movement for civil rights, composing the powerful piece “Alabama” in the wake of the deadly September 1963 bombing of Birmingham’s 16th Street Baptist Church
—or more accurately, King’s speech
that followed.
[Pianist McCoy] Tyner told jazz historian Ashley Kahn for his 2002 book A Love Supreme: The Story of John Coltrane’s Signature Album the piece’s melodic line was derived from the rhythms of a speech by Martin Luther King Jr. that Coltrane read in a newspaper.
These children — unoffending, innocent, and beautiful — were the victims of one of the most vicious and tragic crimes ever perpetrated against humanity.
And yet they died nobly. They are the martyred heroines of a holy crusade for freedom and human dignity. And so this afternoon in a real sense they have something to say to each of us in their death. They have something to say to every minister of the gospel who has remained silent behind the safe security of stained-glass windows. They have something to say to every politician [Audience:] (Yeah) who has fed his constituents with the stale bread of hatred and the spoiled meat of racism. They have something to say to a federal government that has compromised with the undemocratic practices of southern Dixiecrats (Yeah) and the blatant hypocrisy of right-wing northern Republicans
. (Speak) They have something to say to every Negro (Yeah) who has passively accepted the evil system of segregation and who has stood on the sidelines in a mighty struggle for justice. They say to each of us, black and white alike, that we must substitute courage for caution. They say to us that we must be concerned not merely about who murdered them, but about the system, the way of life, the philosophy which produced the murderers. Their death says to us that we must work passionately and unrelentingly for the realization of the American dream.
Herbie Hancock
’s “I Have A Dream” is the opening piece on his album “The Prisoner.” As music critic Derek Anderson wrote
of the composition in 2020:
Dr. Martin Luther King’s famous phrase I Have a Dream, lent its name to the album opener. It’s an ambitious eleven minute epic, and was followed by the title-track. Its composer, Herbie Hancock, explained that The Prisoner is about: “how black people have been imprisoned for a long time.” Firewater was meant to symbolise the duality of the oppressor and the oppressed. Fire was meant to symbolise the heat in violence as well as the abuse of power, while the feeling of water recalls Dr. Martin Luther King. He Who Lives In Fear refers to Dr King as he “had to live in an atmosphere charged with intimidation.” Herbie Hancock explained how Promise Of The Sun which closes the album symbolises: “how the sun promises life and freedom to all living things, and yet blacks are not yet free.”
I have a very long list of additional musical tributes to MLK and the movement, and no more space to include them here in today’s story, so look for tons of bonus content in the comments.
Additionally, find previous stories about MLK and the Civil Rights Movement below.
Republicans in multiple states are pushing for federal legislation to address noncitizen voting, something they insist is an urgent matter requiring intervention at the highest levels of the government. But the problem does not really exist and is a smokescreen for rules, regulations, and practices that help Republicans win elections.
Earlier this week, 12 of the state chairs for the right-wing State Freedom Caucus Network sent a letter
to congressional leaders pushing for passage of the “Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.” The law, proposed by Republicans, purports to close loopholes allowing for noncitizen voting.
“The states continue to face the prospect of a huge population of noncitizens illegally voting in our elections and potentially affecting the outcome,” the letter alleges. “We must close the loopholes that put the integrity of our elections at risk. We need the SAVE Act to ensure that only U.S. citizens vote in U.S. elections.”
First, it’s already illegal
for noncitizens to vote in federal elections. If a noncitizen even registers to vote, they could face up to five years in prison. In a study
conducted by the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, researchers could find only 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting in the 2016 election, comprising 0.0001% of votes that were cast in those jurisdictions. That number includes only potential noncitizen votes—not cases that have been investigated and determined to be ineligible.
Not only is noncitizen voting extremely rare
, it’s also not coordinated by any groups in a way to systematically control the outcomes of elections.
Additionally, civil rights groups have called
the SAVE Act “unnecessary and dangerous,” and said it “is intended to elicit irrational fear of the growing number of citizens of color.”
Donald Trump
But the issue is just one of the latest ways Donald Trump and other Republican officials
are fearmongering
around immigration. Similarly, right-wing media outlets, like Fox News and Newsmax, have made stories
about the purported problem a staple of their programming.
Promoting these lies creates an environment where voter-suppression laws and regulations can thrive. When these rules are in place, eligible voters have then been barred from voting
, and frequently when election turnout is low, that has favored
the political fortunes of the Republican Party (but it is not the case in every election).
Noncitizen voting is also a convenient boogeyman for the right. Conservative ideas
and candidates are often unpopular, but instead of confronting this lack of appeal, the right can simply blame noncitizens—a population they demonize anyway—for their loss. Trump did this in 2017
, when he falsely claimed that his popular-vote loss to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was the fault of undocumented immigrants.
Campaigning against an imaginary wave of noncitizen voting serves many purposes for the right: It rallies supporters against migrants, it pushes laws that help Republicans, and it excuses Republican losses in elections. The core issue is made up, but the effects are unfortunately very real.
