What’s Next for Kamala Harris?

by dap | Nov 25, 2024 | Outside The Beltway, Politico

POLITICO (“Harris is telling her advisers and allies to keep her political options open“):

Kamala Harris has been lying low since her defeat in the presidential race, unwinding with family and senior aides in Hawaii before heading back to the nation’s capital.

But privately, the vice president has been instructing advisers and allies to keep her options open — whether for a possible 2028 presidential run, or even to run for governor in her home state of California in two years. As Harris has repeated in phone calls, “I am staying in the fight.”

She is expected to explore those and other possible paths forward with family members over the winter holiday season, according to five people in the Harris inner circle, who were granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. Her deliberations follow an extraordinary four months in which Harris went from President Joe Biden’s running mate to the top of the ticket, reenergizing Democrats before ultimately crashing on election night.

“She doesn’t have to decide if she wants to run for something again in the next six months,” said one former Harris campaign aide. “The natural thing to do would be to set up some type of entity that would give her the opportunity to travel and give speeches and preserve her political relationships.”

A companion Playbook article (“The big decision facing Kamala Harris“) notes:

While the two aren’t mutually exclusive technically, they are practically — there’s an “emerging consensus that she probably can’t do both,” Eugene and Chris report. Assuming she is elected governor, it would be hard to imagine her turning right around and running for president given the demands on the leader of the nation’s largest state. (As one confidant put it, “It’s a real job.”)

But they’re both credible paths. While no Democrat is pleased with the election’s outcome, obviously, much of the blame inside the party seems to be going to her boss for staying in the race as long as he did. And while there are recriminations about the Harris campaign’s strategy and spending, polls show Democratic voters continue to have a positive impression of the candidate herself.

— The road to Sacramento: Few around Harris thought the open race to succeed term-limited Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM might be appealing to an ex-presidential nominee. But that thinking is starting to change.

Yes, going from VP to governor could be like a step down in prestige. But a Governor Harris would have more power than she’s held in any other position she’s previously held, and — as Newsom has shown — it would give her a potent platform to take on Trump. And two terms as California’s first woman (and African American, and South Asian) governor, the thinking goes, would be a fitting capstone to a pathbreaking career.

As a political matter, the road to the governorship would likely be relatively smooth. A recent UC Berkeley poll  found nearly half of likely California voters were inclined to support her for governor. In other early polls of the field, possible Democratic candidates like KATIE PORTER, XAVIER BECERRA, ANTONIO VILLARAIGOSA and ROB BONTA are lucky to clear double digits.

The primary election takes place in July 2026, and every pol we’ve spoken to — Harris ally or not — agrees that she has the potential to clear the field, so she has time to decide. But the longer she waits, the more opportunity she gives rivals to gain a foothold.

— The road to the Oval Office: Harris, it’s safe to say, is an “X factor” in the 2028 presidential derby. Some Democrats are dismissive of another run given her loss, and — unlike in California — it’s unlikely other Democrats would defer to her. “I can’t conceivably imagine the party turning to her a second time,” said one strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly.

But polls have found her miles ahead of other Democrats in very, very early polling  of the prospective field. She won more presidential votes than any Democrat not named Joe Biden. And she has infrastructural advantages that others will be hard-pressed to beat, including a massive donor list

“She proved a lot of skeptics wrong as a political athlete. And her standing with the public is as good as any Democrat’s with the name ID that she has,” one Harris ally told POLITICO.

The last time a losing major party presidential nominee ran for a state governorship was 1962, when Richard Nixon (also a sitting VP when he lost to John Kennedy in 1960) ran for California’s governorship. He lost that race, too. Until this year, Nixon was also the last losing major party nominee to successfully get renominated (in 1968).

Al Gore was only 52 when he lost the 2000 race and, unlike Harris, he won the popular vote. While there was speculation multiple times that he would run again, he never did.

I would think Harris, who won statewide elections for Attorney General and U.S. Senator in California, would have a very good chance, indeed, at winning the governorship. It would be a nice consolation prize, indeed.

The climb to the 2028 nomination would be much steeper. While she has the name recognition and machinery to make a strong run, there’s a deep bench of Democratic governors and Senators who would be interested in the job. And, while people rightly think she had her hands tied based on the way she was handed the nomination, she did in fact lose the race.

At only 60, there’s always the Deion Sanders option: Both. While I agree that she would have a hard time launching a presidential bid for 2028 right after winning the governorship in 2026, she would only be 68 in 2032—certainly young enough to serve two terms as President.