BEIRUT — A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese fighter group Hezbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.
The deal struck on Nov. 27 to halt the war required Hezbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers.
So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hezbollah, which it accuses of attempting to launch rockets and move weapons before they can be confiscated and destroyed.
Hezbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.
Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.
“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria’s longtime leader, Bashar Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.
With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hezbollah’s hand, Israel had already agreed to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire.
Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023 — the day after Hamas launched a deadly attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war in Gaza. Since then, Israeli air and ground assaults have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon, including hundreds of civilians. At the height of the war, more than 1 million Lebanese people were displaced.
Hezbollah rockets forced some 60,000 from their homes in northern Israel, and killed 76 people in Israel, including 31 soldiers. Almost 50 Israeli soldiers were killed during operations inside Lebanon.
Here’s a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.
What does the ceasefire agreement say?
The agreement says that both Hezbollah and Israel will halt “offensive” military actions, but that they can act in self-defense, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.
The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hezbollah and other fighter groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hezbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon — activities that might eventually be expanded to the rest of Lebanon, although it is not explicit in the ceasefire agreement.
The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon and the U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.
“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad, the analyst, said.
Is the ceasefire being implemented?
Hezbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hezbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are fighter sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.
Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon – Khiam and Shamaa. They remain in some 60 others, according to the International Organization for Migration, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.
Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the U.N. Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 “ground and air attacks” between the start of the ceasefire and Dec. 22, 2024.
The complaint said the attacks have hindered the Lebanese army’s efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.
Israel says Hezbollah has violated the ceasefire hundreds of times and has also complained to the Security Council. It accused Hezbollah fighters of moving ammunition, attempting to attack Israeli soldiers, and preparing and launching rockets towards northern Israel, among other things.
Until it hands over control of more towns to the Lebanese army, Israeli troops have been destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, including weapons warehouses and underground tunnels. Lebanese authorities say Israel has also destroyed civilian houses and infrastructure.
What happens after the ceasefire has been in place for 60 days?
Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.
Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army’s control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.
Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be “sacred,” said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.
Hezbollah officials have said that if Israeli forces remain in Lebanon 60 days past the start of the ceasefire, the fighter group might return to attacking them. But Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said Wednesday that, for now, the group is holding off to give the Lebanese state a chance to “take responsibility” for enforcing the agreement.
In a speech Saturday, he took a more threatening tone.
“Our patience may run out before or after the 60 days,” he said. “When we decide to do something you will see it directly.”
Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.
“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn’t fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.
While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni. And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.
Aubrey Plaza’s husband, screenwriter and director Jeff Baena, was found dead Friday of an apparent suicide at the age of 47.
An assistant made the grisly discovery at a Los Angeles-area home, to which emergency services responded around 10:30 a.m. local time, law enforcement sources told TMZ.
Authorities pronounced Baena dead at the scene and say he died by suicide.
Actress Aubrey Plaza (L) and director Jeff Baena attend “The Little Hours” premiere during day 1 of the 2017 Sundance Film Festival at Library Center Theater on January 19, 2017 in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Michael Loccisano/Getty Images for Sundance Film Festival)
The New York University alum started out as an assistant to Oscar-winning “Forrest Gump” director Robert Zemeckis. He broke out when he co-wrote 2004’s star-studded black comedy “I Heart Huckabees,” with David O. Russell.
Ten years later, he released his directorial debut, “Life After Beth,” which he wrote and in which Plaza starred. The future spouses reunited for 2016’s “Joshy,” which centers on a man reconciling with his fiancée’s suicide.
Plaza also starred in Baena’s 2017 film, “The Little Hours,” and appeared in his final feature film, 2022’s “Spin Me Round.”
Both movies, as well as 2020’s “Horse Girl,” starred “Community” alum Alison Brie. Baena and Brie co-wrote “Horse Girl” and “Spin Me Round.” The two also worked together on his experimental Showtime series “Cinema Toast.”
Plaza and Baena went public with their marriage in spring 2021, a decade after they were first linked.
“So proud of my darling husband @jeffbaena for dreaming up another film that takes us to Italia to cause some more trouble,” the Emmy-nominated “White Lotus” star captioned an Instagram post,
referring to “Spin Me Round.”
It was considered the first public reference to the couple’s under-the-radar nuptials.
WASHINGTON — The State Department has informed Congress of a planned $8 billion weapons sale to Israel, U.S. officials say, as the American ally presses forward with its war against Hamas in Gaza.
Some of the arms in the package could be sent through current U.S. stocks but the majority would take a year or several years to deliver, according to two U.S. officials Saturday who spoke on condition of anonymity because the notification to Congress hasn’t been formally sent.
The sale includes medium-range air-to-air missiles to help Israel defend against airborne threats, 155 mm projectile artillery shells for long-range targeting, Hellfire AGM-114 missiles, 500-pound bombs and more.
The weapons package would add to a record of at least $17.9 billion in military aid that the U.S. has provided Israel since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, launched the war.
The Biden administration has faced criticism over mounting deaths of Palestinian civilians. There have been demonstrations on college campuses and unsuccessful efforts in Congress by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and some Democrats to block sales of offensive weapons to Israel.
The United States paused a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel in May over concerns about civilian casualties if the bombs were to be used during an assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The Biden administration has demanded that Israel increase humanitarian aid into the enclave. But in November, citing some limited progress, it declined to limit arms transfers as it threatened to do if the situation did not improve.
In recent days, Israel has been conducting airstrikes in Gaza that have killed dozens of people, adding to the tens of thousands of deaths since the war began more than a year ago.
The Israeli army said Friday that it had struck dozens of Hamas gathering points and command centers throughout Gaza. Israel’s military says it only targets fighters and blames Hamas for civilian deaths because its fighters operate in dense residential areas.
The war has caused widespread destruction and displaced about 90% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million, many of them multiple times. Winter has now arrived, and hundreds of thousands are sheltering in tents near the sea.
The informal notice to Congress isn’t the final notification before a sale. Now the leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee or the Senate Foreign Relations Committee can review the package.
News of the weapons sale was first reported by Axios.
WASHINGTON — This time was supposed to be different.
But while House Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday avoided the dayslong ordeal that his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, endured to become speaker, his relatively swift victory was hardly a unifying moment. The tumult of the day laid bare that Johnson retains only tenuous support from hard-line conservatives who gave him their votes for now, but stand ready to dispatch him just as they did McCarthy if their demands aren’t met.
“Is he going to fight?” said Rep. Ralph Norman, a South Carolina Republican who initially opposed Johnson but ultimate changed his vote.
Republicans are relishing the moment as they take unified control of Washington and rally around President-elect Donald Trump. Yet the elements that made for a turbulent House the past two years remain stubbornly in place, except that the stakes are far higher now as Republicans try to deliver on Trump’s agenda.
The scale of the conflict to come was apparent as Congress began its new session Friday. House Republicans took shots at each other on TV and argued on the House floor, the freshly elected speaker looked worried, and even after Johnson’s victory, some GOP lawmakers openly discussed what might trigger his removal.
For a time, it seemed things might get even worse.
The House chamber seemed to snap back to a familiar scene from the speakership vote two years ago as archconservatives refused to back Johnson, gesticulating while they openly negotiated on the floor. But after an hour of uncertainty and tense negotiations — as well as Trump calling in from a golf course to make clear he supported Johnson — two of the three Republicans who at first denied Johnson the speakership changed their votes to give him the majority he needed.
Norman said it was not so much Trump who changed his mind, but the fact that Johnson, as he huddled with the holdouts in the back of the House chamber, vowed that he would indeed “fight for everything going forward.”
Easier said than done.
Johnson has the difficult task of leading a Republican majority that will be even slimmer than it was in the last Congress — potentially down to a single vote, once a handful of members join Trump’s administration.
Last year, the thin majority, as well as near-constant defiance from his right flank, forced Johnson to rely on Democratic support to pass practically any significant legislation.
Johnson tried to turn the page in his first speech after winning the speaker’s gavel, arguing that Republicans are now empowered by a “groundswell of Americans” who want an end to the status quo in Washington.
“Speaker Johnson contends that in a environment where we have the White House and the Republican Senate, that he’s going to be able to go get the job done,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, who has been outspoken in his criticism of Johnson. “So we’ll give him a chance to see. But we need to deliver. There’s no room for any excuses now.”
Making matters more difficult, even if Johnson manages to unite his conference in the House, most legislation will still need at least some Democratic support in the Senate, where the chamber’s filibuster rules prevent most bills from advancing unless they have support from at least 60 senators. Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
“He’s got a really, really tough job,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
Republican leadership did ease one threat to Johnson by making it more difficult to oust the speaker through a so-called motion to vacate. Any motion will now need at least nine members from the majority party rather than being triggered by a single lawmaker. Democrats protested that Republicans are shielding the speaker from bipartisan accountability.
Still, within minutes of Johnson gaining the support he needed to take the speakership, the House Freedom Caucus released a letter signed by 11 members demanding that Johnson deliver ambitious policy goals, including enacting permanent border security changes, making aggressive federal spending cuts and banning members of Congress from stock trading.
Caucus members said Johnson now “must prove he will not fail to enact President Trump’s bold agenda.”
At the same time, conservatives are also agitating for guarantees to reduce the federal deficit as well as move power from the speaker’s office by allowing rank-and-file members greater control over what’s included in legislation. While such promises could prove hard to keep, Johnson committed to working closely with Freedom Caucus members in crafting legislation.
“Speakers typically don’t last very long,” said Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., a caucus member. “I would say this about Speaker Johnson: As long as this is a member-driven process, I think his speakership will be successful. If it’s not, that’s going to be tough.”
Nine conservatives initially withheld support for Johnson during the speakership vote by either staying silent while their names were called or voting for someone else. It was taken by many as a not-so-subtle message that the motion to vacate is still at hand, even with the rules change.
The warning was even raised to Johnson during a huddle over the speaker vote, Norman said.
Norman said Johnson responded: “Look, if I don’t perform like I say I’m going to perform and push the things that you’re saying, put me out. I never thought I would have this job anyway.’”
That is one takeaway from the fast, detailed data that Tesla collected on the driver of one of its Cybertrucks that exploded in Las Vegas earlier this week. Privacy data experts say the deep dive by Elon Musk’s company was impressive, but also shines a spotlight on a difficult question as vehicles become less like cars and more like computers on wheels.
Is your car company violating your privacy rights?
“You might want law enforcement to have the data to crack down on criminals, but can anyone have access to it?” said Jodi Daniels, CEO of privacy consulting firm Red Clover Advisors. “Where is the line?”
Many of the latest cars not only know where you’ve been and where you are going, but also often have access to your contacts, your call logs, your texts and other sensitive information thanks to cell phone syncing.
The data collected by Musk’s electric car company after the Cybertruck packed with fireworks burst into flames in front of the Trump International Hotel Wednesday proved valuable to police in helping track the driver’s movements.
Within hours of the New Year’s Day explosion that burned the driver beyond recognition and injured seven, Tesla was able to track Matthew Livelsberger’s movements in detail from Denver to Las Vegas, and also confirm that the problem was explosives in the truck, not the truck itself. Tesla used data collected from charging stations and from onboard software — and to great acclaim.
“I have to thank Elon Musk, specifically,” said Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Sheriff Kevin McMahill to reporters. “He gave us quite a bit of additional information.“
Some privacy experts were less enthusiastic.
“It reveals the kind of sweeping surveillance going on,” said David Choffnes, executive director of the Cybersecurity and Privacy Institute at Northeastern University in Boston. “When something bad happens, it’s helpful, but it’s a double edged sword. Companies that collect this data can abuse it.”
General Motors, for instance, was sued in August by the Texas attorney general for allegedly selling data from 1.8 million drivers to insurance companies without their consent.
Cars equipped with cameras to enable self-driving features have added a new security risk. Tesla itself came under fire after Reuters reported how employees from 2019 through 2022 shared drivers’ sensitive videos and recordings with each other, including videos of road rage incidents and, in one case, nudity.
Tesla did not respond to emailed questions about its privacy policy. On its website, Tesla says it follows strict rules for keeping names and information private.
“No one but you would have knowledge of your activities, location, or a history of where you’ve been,” according to a statement. “Your information is kept private and secure.”
Auto analyst Sam Abuelsamid at Telemetry Insight, said he doesn’t think Tesla is “especially worse” than other auto companies in handling customer data, but he is still concerned.
“This is one of the biggest ethical issues we have around modern vehicles. They’re connected,” he said. “Consumers need to have control over their data.”
Tensions were high when the Cybertruck parked at the front doors of Trump’s hotel began smoking, then burst into flames. Just hours earlier a driver in another vehicle using the same peer-to-peer car rental service, Turo, had killed 15 people after slamming into a crowd in New Orleans in what law enforcement is calling a terrorist attack.
Shortly before 1 p.m., the Las Vegas police announced they were investigating a second incident.
“The fire is out,” the police announced on the social media platform X, one of Musk’s other companies. “Please avoid the area.”
Tesla shortly thereafter swung into action.
“The whole Tesla senior team is investigating this matter right now,” Musk wrote on X. “Will post more information as soon as we learn anything.”
Over the next few hours, Tesla was able to piece together Livelsberger’s journey over five days and four states by tracking, among other things, his recharging stops in various locations, including Monument, Colorado, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Flagstaff, Arizona.
There are no federal laws regulating car data similar to those that restrict information collection and sharing by banks and health care providers. And state laws are a grab-bag of various rules, mostly focused on data privacy in general.
Daniels, the privacy consultant, thinks that new national laws are needed because rules have not kept up with technology.
“I think law enforcement should have access to data that can help them solve things quickly,” she said. “But we have a right to privacy.”
