Even if a recession does not end up happening, the mere possibility of one is enough to stir up financial fears. When the economy slows down drastically, stocks can tank, loans can become more difficult to secure and job security can decline.

Lately, fears of a recession have ramped up, after President Donald Trump “declined to dismiss the idea that a recession could happen” during an interview with Fox News in March discussing the implications of the tariffs he is imposing, said Time. Amid the administration’s economic policy moves, “Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability from 15% to 20%, while J.P. Morgan’s chief economist has upped the odds to 40%, a significant jump from the 30% prediction at the start of the year,” said The Washington Post.

While there is no telling where the economy will head, there are steps you can take to ensure confidence in your own financial situation — no matter what lies ahead.

1. Get any debt paid down

“High-interest debt — like credit card debt — can be especially difficult to shed when money is tight,” said NerdWallet. This is in part thanks to interest, which can “pile up quickly, especially when interest rates are rising.”

But a recession also brings with it the possibility of job loss, and “if you lose your job, you may have no choice but to focus on paying for essentials — a roof over your head and food on the table — not shelling out interest payments on unpaid credit card debt,” said the Post. This can lead to a further interest pileup.

As such, it is worth assessing your debt situation sooner than later, whether with a balance transfer credit card or a debt payoff strategy like the debt avalanche method.

2. Double down on saving

Since a recession “can quickly change your circumstances,” it is smart to have a savings cushion to fall back on, said the Post. Plus, “if you have your own cash, you will be less dependent on borrowing to cover unexpected costs or the loss of a job,” which is especially helpful given “credit availability tends to dry up quickly when a recession hits,” said Investopedia.

You will want to aim to have “three to 12 months of living expenses … stashed in a high-interest, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)-insured account,” said Investopedia. If your current savings balance is far from that, “ending unnecessary subscriptions or other forms of entertainment can help people supplement their emergency budget,” said Time.

3. Avoid trying to get ahead of the stock market

“The urgency and panic of a recession can cause overwhelming distress, but you don’t want that to influence your financial strategy,” said Credit Karma. Instead, hold steady with what you have been doing, such as contributing to your retirement account and investing for the long term.

While it is “natural to want to sell during market drops,” said NerdWallet, “when you sell shares as prices are falling, you lock in losses.” But “if you don’t sell, you won’t lose anything,” said Investopedia, and given “the market is cyclical … in the long run, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to sell high.”

There are a lot of losers in the global trade war that President Donald Trump declared last week. But there is also potentially a big winner: China.

America’s new tariff policy “could end up making China great again,” said The Economist. The fallout from Trump’s announcement is “creating opportunities to redraw the geopolitical map of Asia in China’s favor.” To be sure, Beijing “came out badly” in the tariff announcement, which saw its total levies on experts to the U.S. rise to 65%. And the ensuing trade war could “trigger a global recession” that damages America’s rival. However, President Xi Jinping now has a “chance to expand China’s influence, especially in the global south.”

Indeed, China is already offering “trauma bonding” with other U.S. trading partners, said The Washington Post. It was previously “working to exploit cracks” in international relationships created by U.S. cuts to foreign aid and the abandonment of climate change talks under Trump. Now, Beijing is reaching out to the European Union, South Korea and Japan to “join forces to resist Trump’s protectionism.”

Navigating ‘volatility and uncertainty’

It’s not as though “Beijing is simply celebrating what the U.S. government is doing,” Yangyang Cheng, a research scholar at Yale Law School, said to WBUR’s “On Point.” While China “may be seeking opportunities to build and foster new alliances,” it also has to navigate the geopolitical “volatility and uncertainty” created by the Trump administration. Two popular Chinese nicknames for Trump signal the peril and opportunity at play: One, Te Mei Pu, translates as “Super Clueless.” The other, Chuan Jian Guo, is “Trump Makes China Great Again.”

Xi has launched a “charm offensive” in the wake of Trump’s announcement, Phillip Inman said at The Guardian. But the trade war comes amid China’s own extensive economic struggles. If Xi can’t persuade America’s trading partners to ally with him — and take Chinese exports that will no longer be competitively priced in the U.S. — he “may have no choice but to stimulate its vast domestic market.” That would be a radical shift for China’s export-driven economy, but possibly necessary: “A rapprochement with the U.S. looks unlikely.”

The West: ‘Weak, divided and in retreat’

Xi “had an excellent week,” said The Wall Street Journal. China’s authoritarian system will help him “ride out whatever political or social pain” that results from the trade war, while Republicans in the United States will have to face voters in 18 months. But Trump’s tariffs, and the international reaction, may also serve as a vindication for Xi. He sees the West as “weak, divided and in retreat.” Now he has confirmation, “and he won’t have to do much to exploit those divisions.”

U.S.-China relations won’t be improved. Trump’s “provocative” moves mean the prospects of a China-U.S. summit are “dimming,” said South China Morning Post. In the meantime, Beijing plans a patient approach to the Trump administration, and will watch to see if a political backlash develops in America. China will “hold out for two years and see,” said Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based professor of international affairs. “In a sense, there’s no urgent need for the leaders’ meeting this year.”

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What happened

U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis said Sunday she had ordered the Trump administration to retrieve one of the migrants it had sent to a prison in El Salvador because the “grievous error” to deport him appeared to be “wholly lawless.” The Justice Department had conceded that deporting Kilmar Abrego Garcia was an “administrative error” but said the judge had no jurisdiction in the case and it had no power to bring him back to Maryland — claims Xinis called “eye-popping.”

Who said what

Sunday’s “strongly worded order” from Xinis “served two purposes,” The New York Times said. It “offered a more detailed explanation” of her bench order Friday, and it “rejected a request by the Justice Department to pause the order as a federal appeals court considered its validity.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi confirmed Sunday that the Justice Department had put Erez Reuveni — the veteran government lawyer who appeared before Xinis on Friday and expressed frustration with the DOJ’s lack of forthcomingness — on administrative leave for not having argued the government’s case “zealously” enough.

What next?

Xinis ordered the Trump administration to bring Abrego Garcia home by Monday night. It’s not clear if the U.S. 4th Circuit Court of Appeals will step in before then.

‘Naloxone education can save lives’

Suhanee Mitragotri and Scott Weiner at The Progressive

One of the “approaches to addressing” the opioid crisis is a “set of public health strategies known as harm reduction,” say Suhanee Mitragotri and Scott Weiner. But there is a “stigma surrounding opioid overdose,” and the “prevalence of this stigma among youth, especially, has contributed to an alarming rise in adolescent overdose deaths.” This stigma “makes it challenging to initiate conversations about naloxone,” so students must “feel empowered to get involved in advocacy efforts.”

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‘How to survive in politically volatile times’

David French and Rory Stewart at The New York Times

Amid “extreme polarization,” it is “important to put morality at the heart of our role as citizens,” say David French and Rory Stewart. Democracy “sounds like a kind of big, vague word, but underneath it are very, very precious ideas.” The “idea of truth is central — absolutely central — to our ability to think.” We must “find a way of living out” our moral values and “cannot simply retreat.” We “can’t allow the degradation and the coarsening of our democratic and moral life.”

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‘Right is tolerating antisemitism as free speech. Republicans must put an end to it.’

Dace Potas at USA Today

Republicans have “increasingly supported or platformed openly antisemitic personalities,” says Dace Potas. The GOP “should learn from their Democratic colleagues about the headache that allowing a small number of antisemites to exist within your coalition can bring.” Conservatives “must forcefully expunge antisemitism.” Allowing it to fester will inevitably lead to the same issues the left allowed to grow in and infect their messaging.” Antisemites have “found an audience among those already holding anti-Israel viewpoints.”

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‘The left can’t quit lying about gender ideology’

Caroline Downey at the National Review

It’s “become fashionable for some Democrats to retroactively recognize that gender ideology is anathema to voters,” says Caroline Downey. They have “still not meaningfully confronted the medical scandal of foisting invasive transition surgeries onto gender-confused children and the ethical scandal of transferring violent male felons into women’s prisons.” Some Democrats are “only now moderating on gender ideology because it’s politically expedient,” and they’re “motivated by political urgency, not a moral commitment to truth.”

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