by | Oct 23, 2024 | The Hill
After the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, President Biden said that we
Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris said, “
….This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.”
There is an understandable impulse to end the war immediately, presumably in exchange for release of the hostages. But the opportunity that Sinwar’s death affords Israel and the U.S. will be squandered if we lack the strategic patience to act wisely.
A more nuanced perspective is that of Matti Friedman,
, “Sinwar’s death will hasten the end of the war….Will Israel seize this moment? It now has a chance to begin to orchestrate the end of the Gaza operation after a year of bloodshed.” His emphasis is not on the immediate, but on the beginning of a new opportunity to move towards a sustainable ceasefire without Hamas as the governing authority in Gaza.
Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz, a Netanyahu opponent, gave an even more realistic assessment that the U.S. administration chooses to ignore.
“
,” he said, but he added that this “moment must be seized and leveraged to bring the hostages home and topple the Hamas regime.”
Hamas still has thousands of fighters in miles of undiscovered tunnels. And Hamas, along with its patron Iran, will still demand over a thousand terrorists be released in a hostage deal, including those who participated in the barbaric Oct. 7 rampage of rape, murder and kidnapping.
Such a mass release of jihadists would not only be a stain upon justice, but it would also resupply Hamas with experienced terrorist leaders. The same thing happened in 2011, when
,
, in exchange for one Israeli hostage, Gilad Shalit. This painful decision is up to the Israelis — whether to take action now to free loved ones, even at the expense of facilitating future kidnappings.
It must also be appreciated that the year-long combat in Gaza is a direct extension of Israel’s 45-year war with Iran. Whatever is decided in a ceasefire deal with Hamas can either weaken or benefit Iran.
The most effective way to begin the next phase of the Gaza and Iranian strategy is for the administration to keep its disagreements with Israel private, putting on a united public face. Publicly airing disputes only encourages Iran and its proxies to be more intransigent, believing that the U.S. will do its diplomatic work for it by pressuring Israel into painful concessions, such as the threat of a weapons supply slowdown.
A great opportunity is at hand thanks to Israeli military achievements, which included the move into Rafah, which Biden and Harris opposed at the time. It should come as no surprise that Sinwar was killed in Rafah.
If the U.S. doesn’t let Israel use its newfound leverage to get the best ceasefire agreement, it will set the stage for a resurgence of Hamas. For no Arab ally of the U.S., nor any uncompromised Palestinians, will dare take the risk of participating in any non-Hamas governance and reconstruction of Gaza while Hamas is still there.
For real progress, the Biden administration needs to pressure Qatar to force the Hamas leaders it is harboring to agree to disarmament of the terror organization in Gaza, in exchange for safe passage of the remaining terrorists to terror-supporting countries such as Iran, Russia or Libya.
Finally, we should use a carrot-and-stick approach for leverage with the Gulf States and Egypt to incentivize them to participate in monitoring and reconstructing Gaza. Hamas ideology is the arch-enemy of these nations, all of which feel threatened by the Muslim Brotherhood. The U.S. has not used the stick of threatening to withhold $1.3 billion of aid to Egypt and has not offered the carrot to Saudi Arabia of a mutual defense pact against Iran.
The death of much of the Hamas leadership — Sinwar,
and
— offers excellent opportunities to create a long-term ceasefire and deradicalization program for Gaza, on Israeli and American terms and concurrent with the release of the hostages. However, we need to adhere to a Middle Eastern timeline and be willing to walk away from counterproductive ceasefire offers that don’t provide the ability to verify and impose immediate consequences for non-compliance.
We all know how verification and sanctions have worked out in the case of Iran — they have turned out to be empty promises, soon forgotten. Israeli citizens, right and left, voting for Netanyahu and voting against him, have had enough of useless paper guarantees for their safety. There was, after all, a ceasefire in place with Hamas on Oct 7, 2023.
The Achilles heel is American impatience, especially with a presidential election weeks away and a lame duck President Biden on a deadline of Jan. 20, 2025. He would like to ensure his legacy before then by ending the war on any terms. The Iranians, Hamas and Hezbollah saw how Biden ordered the U.S. to leave Afghanistan in a hurry. They hope Biden will impose a similarly hurried fire-sale deal upon Israel in order to meet such a deadline.
Instead, we need to help Israel translate its tactical successes into diplomatic achievements, maximizing the leverage it has gained through its costly military achievements. Being patient with Israel signals to our allies around the world that we stand with our friends.
The next three months will determine whether Sinwar’s death is a crucial step toward victory for Israel and the U.S., or just one man’s martyrdom as part of a successful Iranian campaign to inflict pain upon Israel and America that will keep flaring up “
.”
Eric R. Mandel is the director of the Middle East Political Information Network and senior security editor for the Jerusalem Post’s Jerusalem Report.
by | Oct 23, 2024 | The Hill
An apparent U.S. intelligence breach related to Israel’s plans to strike Iran has unsettled the intelligence community and sent the Biden administration scrambling to determine if it came from a hack or an internal leak.
The breach, first posted to the Telegram messaging app Friday, comes as the globe has been bracing for an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran since Tehran fired some 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 in response for the killings of top leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s prized proxies.
The FBI, aided by the Pentagon and intelligence agencies, is now investigating the unauthorized leak. Here’s what we know so far:
What was in the leak?
The leaked reports in question include one from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which analyzes satellite imagery, and one from the National Security Agency, which intercepts communications. Both were dated Oct. 16 and held highly classified information.
The documents were only meant to be viewed by the “Five Eyes” — the U.S. and its allies Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
Screenshots of the documents — first published on an Iran-linked Telegram account and circulated on social media — show descriptions of Israel’s possible plans for an attack on Iran, including the types of aircraft and munitions its military might use. The reports do not suggest Israel’s potential targets, but say a strike could come without forewarning.
The top-secret assessments detail U.S. tracking of Israeli airfield activity Oct. 15-16, to include the movement of munitions such as air-launched ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles.
The U.S. also observed an exercise “likely to practice air-to-air refueling and combat search and rescue operations with a large number of aircraft,” something that would be needed should Israeli fighter jets be used to strike Iran.
White House response
The Biden administration quickly condemned the leak.
“We’re deeply concerned, and the president remains deeply concerned, about any leakage of classified information into the public domain,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday.
“That is not supposed to happen, and it’s unacceptable when it does.”
Kirby also revealed that a Pentagon investigation was seeking to determine whether the documents were a hack or a leak.
On Tuesday, the FBI revealed it had launched an investigation into the incident and was “working closely with our partners in the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community.”
The FBI’s involvement is notable given that it investigates violations of the Espionage Act, the U.S. law that makes it illegal to retain or disclose national defense information.
A U.S. official told
the investigation also was meant to glean if other intelligence information was compromised, and who had access to the documents before they were posted.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday the U.S. military takes “these types of things very seriously, very, very seriously, and we investigate things if there is any type of incident.”
The administration appears shaken given the incident’s similarity to last year’s leaking of classified documents from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency by Jack Teixeira, an Air National Guard member from Massachusetts.
Teixeira pleaded guilty in March to leaking hundreds of secret military documents about Russia’s war on Ukraine and other national defense information.
Pentagon pushes back on reports
The Pentagon on Tuesday declined to comment on its role in the probe but said that Austin has spoken with his Israeli counterpart about the matter.
“The investigation is in its first few days, so it’s important to let that investigation run its course,” press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters.
The Pentagon also has denied allegations linking a specific Defense Department staffer to the leaks: Ariane Tabatabai, the chief of staff to Christopher Maier, the assistant secretary of Defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict.
Foreign outlets have circulated reports that she is to blame, but Ryder denied her culpability.
“To my knowledge, this official is not a subject of interest, and the department remains fully committed to supporting the investigation,” he said.
GOP quick with criticism
Republican politicians quickly jumped on the leak, while former President Trump added his voice to the fray Tuesday when he suggested without evidence that “enemies from within” were responsible for the breach.
“They leaked all the information about the way that Israel’s going to fight and how they are going to fight and where they are going to go,” Trump said Tuesday at a campaign event focused on Latino leaders.
“Can you imagine somebody doing that? That’s the enemy. I guess that maybe is the enemy from within, as I talked about,” he added.
“We just can’t stand for this incompetence anymore.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Sunday said he was alarmed by the incident.
“The leak is very concerning. There’s some serious allegations being made there, an investigation underway, and I’ll get a briefing on that in a couple of hours,” Johnson said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
And Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) warned that the United States needs to deal with its “leaky ships” and that the Israel intelligence leak should be considered an “act of treason.”
Israel’s looming retaliation
Israel is expected to launch a retaliatory strike on Iran following Tehran’s missile barrage on the country earlier this month, which was in response to the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in September.
Washington has been trying to steer its ally away from striking Iranian nuclear or oil sites, as U.S. officials fear such a move could further inflame the region on top of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The intelligence leak comes after Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, during which Hamas soldiers killed more than 1,200 civilians and set off the Gaza war.
President Biden and Vice President Harris are now calling for a cease-fire to end the conflict and release the hostages still in Hamas captivity.
by | Oct 22, 2024 | The Hill
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 11 Democrats are urging President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Attorney General Merrick Garland to open a formal investigation into an
that injured American journalists over a year ago.
“The evidence clearly indicates that this was an unlawful direct attack on civilians in which a U.S. citizen was injured and was lucky to survive. Several journalists were severely injured, and one was killed,” lawmakers
on Tuesday.
The other Democratic lawmakers on the letter include Sen.
(Vt.), Rep. Becca Balint (Vt.), Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Sen. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Rep. Cori Bush (Mo.), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (Wash.), Rep. Barbara Lee (Calif.), Rep. Jim McGovern (Mass.), Rep. Delia Ramirez (Ill.), Rep. Melanie Stansbury (N.M.), Rep. Rashida Tlaib (Mich.).
Dylan Collins, a U.S. citizen and journalist for Agence France-Presse (AFP) was severely wounded by Israeli tank fire while wearing a press vest reporting near the line of withdrawal between Lebanon and Israel.
“Unfortunately, this incident is part of a wider pattern of disregard by the Israeli military for the safety of civilians, including journalists and humanitarian aid workers,” the letter alleges citing reports from the
and
Sanders wrote a letter to the State Department earlier this year in which officials said the Government of Israel would investigate the incident.
However, the agency said it did not “
” U.S.-origin weapons, and instead was likely caused by an “Israeli-made M339” or “M329 tank rounds” fired by an Israeli made Merkava tank, according to an independent investigation by Reuters and TNO.
Now, the 11 lawmakers, including Tlaib (D), the first-Palestinian woman to serve in the body, are asking for more concrete answers about the series of events.
The group wrote, “This investigation is necessary to confirm the details of the attack, secure an explanation as to why it was carried out, identify those responsible throughout the chain of command, and hold to account those who ordered and executed the attack.”
The Hill has reached out to the Biden administration for comment.
