Artificial Intelligence, Politics and the Economy

Future political campaigns will increasingly utilize artificial intelligence generated content to mislead potential voters. About 1 billion voters will be going to the polls in 2024 in the US, India, the UK, the EU, Indonesia and Russia. However, neither AI companies nor governments have made serious efforts to protect and legitimize election information. There are concerns about fundraising scams using generative AI, a micro-targeting tsunami. With AI lowering the costs of content, specific messages can be aimed at undecided or unmotivated voters to induce them to reach decisions. Incendiary emotional fuel will be poured on voters by political parties to anger them against opposing candidates. Unfortunately, AI has the potential to influence elections and destroy democracy by providing a constant barrage of false information for all media. It could persuade and manipulate voters through its false interactions which do not cease until the elections.

A rise in misinformation, fraud and lies is virtually certain as AI is utilized by greater numbers of people. Though there is more concern about existential risks, the spread of misinformation is a more imminent problem. Lies, conspiracy theories and misinformation have been prominent on the internet for years, but AI will make these falsehoods more frequent and compelling. There have been estimates that AI generated content could soon account for 99 percent of all information online, making it even more difficult to moderate. An expert in AI, Professor Kate Starbird, noted that 1) AI is great at churning out misinformation that sounds reasonable but has little regard for accuracy. 2) Generative AI helps those who deliberately seek to mislead. 3) Generative AI models themselves offer a new target for those who want to shape the information debate on a subject. However, there are measures that individuals, companies and governments can take to mitigate the risks of misinformation. Google has already declared that it will require prominent disclosures for all AI generated election ads.

To spread disinformation and lies using AI is also very easy and inexpensive. An AI developer tried this, employing widely available AI tools to create anti-Russian tweets and articles to spread propaganda. He found it cost him just $400 to fabricate an AI machine to counteract Russian media propaganda and lies with similar responses. The CounterCloud rebuttal effort was entirely designed by AI to highlight the threat of mass-produced disinformation using OpenAI’s text generation. Any state actor or non-actor can easily devise a campaign of lies and propaganda to capture the attention of the internet population. Political campaigns are also using AI generated images and videos that are often fake.

Nobel Prize Laureate in economics Paul Krugman believes AI will not only transform the economy but will also fix the problem of our huge deficit and national debt by increasing our productivity significantly. Krugman is not sure the new generative AI is really intelligence as much as it is extrapolation from pattern recognition or enhanced auto correct. But whatever it is labeled, it can still save highly skilled workers considerable time and make them more creative and productive. Krugman does not think AI will result in mass unemployment along with our increased productivity, though obviously some people will lose their jobs. These will mainly be high-end administrative employees. As autonomous vehicles become more accepted, blue-collar jobs will also be lost. However, economic growth and the boost in GDP from AI should make our debt less of a concern, with faster growth enhancing revenue and reducing the budget deficit.

Ready or not, artificial intelligence is going to open up a whole new world for humanity. What we do with it remains to be seen.

www.robertlevinebooks.com

Buy The Uninformed Voter on Amazon and Barnes and Noble

The post Artificial Intelligence, Politics and the Economy appeared first on The Moderate Voice .

Why would Islamic State attack Russia and what does this mean for the terrorism threat globally?

Greg Barton , Deakin University

It appears almost certain the brutal assault on a Russian crowd settling down to watch a rock concert in Moscow on Friday night was an Islamist terrorist attack .

At least 133 people were left dead and scores more were injured after gunmen with automatic weapons stormed the Crocus City Hall in Moscow and opened fire, triggering a stampede.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, initially through its Amaq media channel and then directly. The modus operandi of the attack also fits with previous Islamic State attacks.

It has been widely reported the attack was the work of Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), a branch established in 2015 in Afghanistan.

So who is this group, why would they attack Russia and what does this mean for the broader terrorism threat?

What is ISIS-K?

ISIS-K is the Islamic State branch that has most consistently and energetically attempted terrorist attacks across Europe, including in Russia . ISIS-K has planned some 21 attacks in nine countries in the past year, up from eight the previous year.

ISIS-K had been under tremendous pressure from the Afghan Special Forces and American troops before the United States full withdrew from the country in 2021. Although that pressure has continued under Taliban rule, ISIS-K has grown in strength in recent years, with several thousand fighters now operating in almost every one of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

If ISIS-K is indeed responsible for the Moscow attack, we should prepare for further attempted attacks – not just in Russia but across Europe.

European authorities have arrested ISIS-K operatives on multiple occasions. After years of warnings that Islamic State was rebuilding the capacity and resolve to resume an international terrorist campaign, Friday’s attack shows the threat is immediate and substantial.

Earlier this month, the US, together with five other nations, had shared intelligence they had of ISIS-K planning for attacks in Moscow. But these warnings were, as recently as last week, rejected by President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin as being part of an attempt to discredit Russia.

The attack comes at the worst possible moment for Russia’s despotic leader, in the wake of his successful “election campaign” to claim a mandate for a further six years in power.

And it is perhaps for this reason that Putin’s five-minute televised address on Saturday, in which he directed blame toward Ukraine, came so late.

We don’t yet know whether the Kremlin will continue to blame Ukraine or the West for the attack, or if it will pivot to accept Islamic State was responsible.

Either way, it’s likely to respond with a wave of violence, cracking down on Russia’s Muslim minority communities in the North Caucasus region and beyond.

Why would they target Russia?

Both Islamic State in general, and ISIS-K in particular, have long proclaimed their intention of striking Russia.

They have cited Russia’s earlier military occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and its long history of crackdowns on Muslim communities in Russia, particularly in the North Caucasus. They have also cited Russia’s role in providing a lifeline to the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

But it was also likely opportunity and personnel that led the group to select a soft target in Moscow, as much as anything else.

Islamic State carried out multiple attacks in Russia from 2016–19, while several more plots were disrupted from 2021–23.

Many of the ISIS-K militants arrested across Europe, including in Russia, over the past two years have been Russian nationals and people from Central Asia with links to Russia.

The most recent arrests occurred this month when Russian authorities claimed they prevented a planned attack on a synagogue in Moscow.

And last month, a Russian national accused of having Islamic State links was arrested in Poland , while another was arrested working at a nuclear facility under construction in Turkey.

In recent years, the vast majority of successful ISIS-K attacks have been in Afghanistan, with many targeting the minority Shia Muslim Hazara community.

For instance, the group launched a massive suicide bombing outside the Kabul airport in August 2021, in the midst of the chaotic evacuation of Kabul, which resulted in around 170 civilians and 13 US military personnel being killed.

ISIS-K also carried out a bombing of the Russian Embassy in Kabul in September 2022, killing at least six.

In January of this year, ISIS-K launched a massive suicide bombing in Kerman, Iran, killing nearly 100 people at a ceremony to mark the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.

What next for Putin and the broader terrorism threat?

Terrorist attacks, including those in brutal regimes like Iran or Russia, are tragic assaults on ordinary people who are not to blame for the politics of policies of the governments they are forced to live under.

When attacked, authoritarian regimes tend to respond with brutal reprisals that are likely to lead to cycles of violence, with less restraint and accountability than is typically the case with counter-terrorism operations in open societies.

Friday night’s attack in Moscow was nightmarish, but sadly the horror is likely to be just the beginning.

Regardless of how Putin and the Kremlin choose to respond, the attack comes as a reminder that the threat of terrorism posed by groups like Islamic State and al-Qaeda is now on the rise again. After five years of mostly operating in western Asia, the Middle East and Africa, these groups now pose a renewed threat to the West.

The continued growth of both ISIS-K and al-Qaeda under Taliban rule in Afghanistan should concern us much more than we have been acknowledging.

Friday’s attack is a clear reminder we should not look away and continue to wash our hands of any attempt to improve things in Afghanistan. There are no easy answers, but turning away and doing nothing will only make the situation worse.The Conversation

Greg Barton , Chair in Global Islamic Politics, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation; Scholar -In-Residence Asia Society Australia, Deakin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

The post Why would Islamic State attack Russia and what does this mean for the terrorism threat globally? appeared first on The Moderate Voice .

Nex Benedict was not beaten to death for being transgendered.

Nex Benedict

Nex Benedict was not beaten to death.

Shortly after Benedict died, some people jumped to a false conclusion about the cause of death before a state medical examiner could complete an autopsy. For example, one person published the false claim, “Oklahoma trans child beaten to death at school for being trans.”

Yes, Benedict was involved in a fight at school, but Benedict shared responsibility for the fight.

From NPR : “. . . Tulsa County District Attorney Steve Kunzweiler says the fight was not one-sided and there’s not enough evidence to press charges. . . While in the hospital for the injuries they sustained during the fight, according to body cam footage, Benedict told police that they poured water on a group of girls in the high school bathroom after they picked on them for how they laughed.”

Now, the full autopsy report has come out. Benedict’s death was not caused by that fight.

From KTUL in Tulsa :

“There were ‘massive’ amounts of Diphenhydramine, more commonly known over the counter as Benadryl, found in Nex’s blood, according to an expert who reviewed the medical examiner’s report. . . Dr. Paul Wax, the Executive Director of the American College of Toxicology, who reviewed the toxicology report at NewsChannel 8’s request said Nex would have to have ‘taken a lot of pills’ to get to the level of concentration found in the blood.”

. . . and . . .

“A second expert who reviewed the findings was forensic pathologist Dr. Daniel Schultz, the President of Final Diagnosis INC. in Tampa, Florida, who came to the same conclusion on the cause of death.

‘There’s no question this was an overdose by a combination of diphenhydramine and fluoxetine,’ Dr. Schultz said. ‘Essentially the dose to do this in some ways implies intent. This is not an accidental type of thing.’

The 11 pages released indicate handwritten notes ‘suggestive of self-harm’ were found in Nex’s room by family members, and that the teen has a history of ‘bipolar disorder, depression, anxiety, self-harm (cutting)’.”

Can one rule out the possibility that being bullied contributed to Benedict’s mental state? Answer: No, of course not.

From USA Today : “Friends said Benedict, who used they/them pronouns, was bullied over their gender identity, which was different from their gender assigned at birth.”

For the record, I live in Benedict’s city. My son graduated from Benedict’s high school five years prior to Benedict’s death. I know just how anti-LGBTQ that my city and state tend to be. 

As a LGBTQ-affirming believer in Messiah Jesus, I am constantly distressed about the majority opinion of others in my city who claim to worship Jesus. They have a gross misunderstanding of what it means to be LGBTQ-affirming

As I see it, not only do they deny the findings of science and human history, they also ignore the parts of the New Testament that allow believers in Jesus to be LGBTQ-affirming.

I know of only two Christian churches within my city that are LGBTQ-affirming, and they have tiny congregations of primarily people over the age of 50. 

In the wake of Benedict’s death, the plight of transgendered students is in the national spotlight. One might call that the cloud’s silver lining. It is a shame that the cloud exists in the first place.

The post Nex Benedict was not beaten to death for being transgendered. appeared first on The Moderate Voice .