The Democratic Nomination: It’s Getting Late Early By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Last April, we noted that despite the ever-growing Democratic presidential field and delegate allocation rules that can string out a nomination fight, there was the possibility of a single candidate getting an early grip on the nomination because of the frontloaded calendar. By the end of St. Patrick’s Day, states awarding more than three-fifths of all the pledged delegates will have voted. We here at the Crystal Ball are big fans of the wisdom of the late Yogi Berra, and we used one of his gems at the time to sum it all up: “It gets late early out there.”

Voters Give Trump The Edge Over Obama For Improved Economy

Former President Obama took credit for the booming economy in a tweet earlier this week, but voters still tend to think President Trump deserves more of the credit.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters agree the economy has gotten better since Trump was elected president in November 2016. Despite numerous economic indicators to the contrary, 24% say the economy has gotten worse, while 26% feel it has remained about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted February 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Sanders and the Senate By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Why his potential nomination makes some Democrats worry; the low-hanging fruit for both parties.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Bernie Sanders may be a poorer fit for the Democrats’ Senate targets than some other Democratic contenders if he wins the nomination.

— There are two Senate rating changes this week: Colorado moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, while Alabama moves from Leans Republican to Likely Republican.

— Republicans remain favored to hold the majority.

Americans Look A Lot Less Kindly on Boy Scouts

Favorable opinions of the Boy Scouts of America (BSA) have fallen to an all-time low following the organization’s announcement this week that it is declaring bankruptcy in the face of hundreds of sexual abuse lawsuits. Americans are also less enthusiastic about scouting in general.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 56% of American Adults have a favorable opinion of the Boy Scouts, with 20% who have a Very Favorable one. But that overall finding is down dramatically from 75% in the summer of 2017. Positive opinions of the BSA sank to a previous low of 59% in April 2014 after the organization agreed to admit openly gay youngsters as scouts but refused to allow gay men to be scoutmasters.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) view the Boy Scouts unfavorably, but that includes Very Unfavorables of only 11%. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted February 18-19, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Democrats’ DNA Makes Them Feel the Bern By Michael Barone

The 2020 presidential race has got the Democratic Party, the oldest political party in the world, twisted in knots. Its basic character and enduring values — its political DNA — which have enabled it to rebound from multiple political disasters, may be producing another disaster this year.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -5. (see trends).

Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily email update). 

Now that Gallup has quit the field, Rasmussen Reports is the only nationally recognized public opinion firm that still tracks President Trump’s job approval ratings on a daily basis. If your organization is interested in a weekly or longer sponsorship of Rasmussen Reports’ Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, please send e-mail to beth@rasmussenreports.com.